SML approved USD $10.1m in dividends to Lucapa in Dec '23, $4m of which was expected in H1 of CY24, with the balance in H2 of CY24.
The HY report stated that Lucapa received USD $1.8m in H1 from SML, so that leaves USD $8.3m that is expected to flow to Lucapa in H2 - equivalent to say AUD $12.5m or the full value of our market cap.
On the basis that Lucapa does receive the balance of the SML dividends in H2, there is zero value attached to the following assets:
1. 40% ownership interest in SML and it's assets
2. 39% ownership interest in the Lulo kimberlite JV and it's assets - expected to increase to 51% under the 'new' MIC
3. 100% ownership of Merlin
You reckon the above are worth more than zero? I do.
It seems pretty clear that a major shareholder is exiting at any cost - and torching the share price in the process. I'm hurting as much as anyone, but I'm still a buyer. The SP will turn, IMO.
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