I said this before and will say it again; the stock price of LTR is irrelevant to what it has and what it's doing because someone is pushing it down by its shear financial capabilities as it appears to me.
I also see this forcing down activity as a psychopathic disorder as there is no reason for LTR to be at this price level when LTR's sectoral, financial and technical situation and capabilities are considered to be very well.
That's why ALB offered $3, and Hancock bought at $3 and invested $1.3b. (The lithium price was also low at that time and was at downtrend)
By that reason it appears to me that pushing LTR's stock price to 65c is not rational atm. It looks to me that someone with shear financial capabilities might have a personal problem with LTR or might be taking revenge on someone in LTR. Very weird.
I also consider this action as a 100% manipulation as there is no explanation of this price level (mcap) when LTR's assets and operation is benchmarked with its peers.
I also said this before; someone is pushing it down deliberately and giving an impression to the market that LTR is a dog stock and a falling knife should not be held. So they still keep selling it down.
I'm holding tight btw. I believe LTR has no problem, in contrary I strongly believe that it's the best lithium project in the world.
ASX and ASIC should immediately start an investigation about the short sellers and the source of loaned stocks to them, and the traders who make intentional losses.
Yes the stock price is at ridiculously low level and its very frustrating for all of us but that is what the shorters and the someone want to do; to demoralise the shareholders to achieve the focused purpose whatever it is.
Yes some of us got demoralised but majority of us are still holding very tight and keeping being strong.
I am also very suspicious that some traders are even intentionally losing money by their trades because it looks like they are selling at lower level after buying at higher level which means they make loss but don't care, because their main purpose is to push the sp down. If that is happening who is funding those traders? and how they are being funded?
I STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT LTR HAS NO PROBLEM
I think LTR's management released that video yesterday showing that how good the KV project is.
LTR has no problem with its financial and technical situation.
LTR has $380m+ in the bank now.
Shorters and someone who pushes LTR down were hoping until July 204 that LTR would not get the $550m credit at the end of July and its project would halted.
No it didn't happen, and they got crazy.
That $380m+ money will be enough to support the financials of company for 18 months I guess. Also LTR will receive income cash from its customers as it's now started production. Not to mention its offtake customers are all tier-1 western companies (other than recent Sinomine.
Some downrampers still hopelessly talk about cap raising but there is no way that it will happen.
KV Process plant is ramping very well
The shorters and "The Someone" were expecting to see LTR would have problems with the ramp up. Because most process plants have problems during the ramp up, some may have major problems. The shorters and "The Someone" know that very well, so they were high hopes that LTR would have problems.
But they were hopelessly waiting for it. It won't happen. They will get crazy again.
Because the KV process plant is ramping up very well at the moment. I am sure the ore feed tonnage is being increased slowly to reach its full capacity and to desired recovery rates.
So what?
What are these shorters and someone want to achieve by pushing the sp down?
They can achieve nothing other than making a low ball offer.
Any low ball takeover offer will be rejected by the board and us.
In any case a low ball offer will face a counter offer. Say even someone makes an offer for $1.50, there are many other big companies which can easily go over that offer; RIO, FMG, WES, ALB, SQM, etc. You name it. All of these companies are very much interested in lithium business and they consider it as a long term profitable business.
Even if Hancock as LTR's largest holder makes an offer then it would lose its "blocking stake" advantage when someone else makes a counter offer over Hancock offer. Then Hancock would have to make a higher offer if interested.
So I'm not expecting Hancock would make an offer. I think Hancock would prefer to remain as a shareholder, but I'm still puzzled why they won't nominate a board member yet.
Why is Hancock so silent about LTR as the largest shareholder.
Btw, I'm wondering why Hancock is not making any comment about LTR's sp situation!
They made a lot of comments and critics on their press releases when they were acquiring LTR shares (see below). Aren't they frustrated with their $1.3b investment in LTR? Hancock is the biggest paper loss holder of stock now..! It's a loss of over $1 billion.
What is Hancock waiting for making a comment about LTR's very low stock price or project related things as they did before?
In fact, Hancock said this on its latest release regarding to LTR shareholding on Oct .11, 2023. That's less than a year ago.
"Hancock now looks forward to having a prominent influence on Liontown’s future, as its largest shareholder".
I remember LTR management said on media that they would be happy to see Hancock's representative in LTR's board.
Why has Hancock not nominated its representative to LTR's board yet?
Maybe there other things which I don't know.
The other meaning of not nominating a board member can be considered is that Hancock would be planning to make a takeover offer. We welcome any offers indeed, as long as it's reasonable. Any unreasonable offer will be rejected regardless how low LTR's sp is at that time.
Btw, what did Hancock mean by "prominent influence" on LTR's future? Hancock rep can be on the board and that board will make Liontown future but not the Hancock.
Does Hancock already have a "prominent influence" on LTR's future but we are not aware of that?
Also Hancock's media release on Sept, 29, 2023 when the shareholding reached to 12.4% was full of critics and a long list of risk warnings which appeared to be scary for LTR holders at that time.
"Hancock notes that the productivity, design, quantity and schedule risks largely remain with Liontown. Hancock also considers that most cost pressures typically emerge in the second half of the construction of mining projects".
Thank you reminding Hancock! We have no productivity, design, quantity and schedule risks atm. We didn't have any problem at the second half of the construction of our project. It's all finished and working well atm.
"Liontown’s need to debt fund part of its capital costs, and the DSO revenue source that is on hold, has now increased to a minimum of $450 million – which Liontown has indicated may need to be further increased".
That's also a passed issue. LG funded us and we now have $380m+ in the bank.
"Ultimately, it is the Liontown shareholders that will have to meet the cost of this additional funding."
No need to repeat these scary things. LOL. We got the additional funding from LG agreement as you know. So everything is OK now.
"Hancock’s previous observations that the project faces significant execution, operational ramp-up and market risks."
1) Execution risk didn't happen. Commissioning is finished and production is started.
2) Operational ramp-up is going very well. It's over one month since LTR started production and no problems so far.
3) Market risks has always been there. Lithium market is not mature hence it's volatility is known well now. We are at the bottom of lithium commodity cycle (it's not an ordinary commodity but let's consider it as it is for now because it makes the same cyclic movement with other commodities). Because no one can make money at these spod prices (MIN's CEO Chris Ellison said the same) there is no way going down any more than this.
Also, LTR won't sell its spod at the Chinese spot price. We have our own tier-1 western offtake buyers and we will get a premium price for our spod.
I'm puzzled by Hancock's past statements on those releases.
I really can't understand if they genuinely wanted to help LTR or they have had a different agenda, because those statements sounded to me like a little bid scaring tactics.
If they don't have a different agenda (planning of a takeover offer or a different method of acquisition) I'd like to invite them to accept LTR board's invitation to Hancock for nomination of its board member.
Otherwise the current LTR shareholders who are suffering because of manipulated stock price (IMO) might rightly consider Hancock is being a predator for a low ball takeover offer.
I'm holding tight. LTR has no problem.
Next post:
LTR is now being the best lithium project in the world. Here is why.
KV Project is better than Greenbushes. Here is why.
Greenbushes process plant have low recovery rates (CGP1: 75%, CGP2: 67%)
Greenbushes process plants are very messy because it's not a one-time design but full of add-ons and modifications over the years.
Greenbushes can only make money when it uses over 2% grade ore.
Yes. Grade is king.
KV Project is the king of the lithium projects.
When the prices are low the high grade mines are being the kings.
KV has a lots of early reachable high grade over 2% ore due to its U/G mining design plan.
LTR has designed and started a U/G mine. That's now well understood that LTR did the right design. Big advantage.
Most of the other projects now want to go underground; including Greenbushes and Wodgina but that's not going to be possible for those. Only Mt Marion started it but for very low grade ore. PLS also mentioned about going U/G. It's too late for PLS IMO.
Wodgina, Mt Marion, Bald Hill of MIN won't make money at this spod price level of USD$750/t. MIN's CEO C. Ellison said that openly.
PLS can't produce and profit at this spod price either.
PLS is processing its high grade ore at 1.5% when its ave. resources grade is 1.15%.
PLS will run out of high grade ore soon and will have to use its low grade ore (because it's an open pit mine and can't reach to high grad ore easily. They have to remove a lot overburden waste rock over the the high grade pegmatites for reaching them,)
Western world is now building its own lithium supply chain.
LG is being the hope of western supply chain.
LG and LTR have now very strong connections.
LG will raise, LTR will raise.
LTR will not sell its quality spod at cheap price like the other Australian producers.
LR will make money in any case and will stay alive until the market recovers.
The market will recover soon because the demand is increasing while the supply is decreasing due to low lithium prices.
LTR Price at posting:
65.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)