having read your previous posts, you clearly have a lot deeper understanding of the technical side of operations than I do.
Making relative assumptions from much of what is and isn't said in announcements is the fundamentals of which the forum is built. To me, a 6 stage stimulation program that is completed, that cites the domination of flow from a zone we have had a documented sustained flow rate range provided is a reasonable base case to build out the total flow rate. At 2.1-2.5 is what we know, and the confirmation of contribution of additional zones to flow rate I think its fair to assume that total flow rate is going to be between 3-5mmscf/d.
To me todays announcement is in line with expectations of what the previous annoucements stated - the CTU will be required back on site once available. Again I'd assume that given condor were plan B, having them complete the original stimulation in the timeframe it did probably took some negotiation with Shell.
I welcome your opinion on your interpretation of announcement and results. I'm not sure what sort of answer you are looking for from me as to why this has not been declared commercial. I don't have great visibility on the conversations taking place on site from my lounge room in Brisbane unfortunately.
The fact the CTU returning to undertake nitrogen lift and clean out work has been forshadowed and mentioned numerous times before so isn't unexpected. I'd imagine they have an understanding of a sustained flow rate but the additional lift and clean out is likely to provide a stronger result which I'd imagine is best case when releasing information to market - particularly when we are looking to appear as attractive a proposition as possible.
That to me makes sense.
Now could the contribution from the remaining zones be pathetic and we don't want to release that info to market? of course it could be and it would be remiss to not acknowledge that is a possibility.
But based off what we actually know as fact, unless you have other information, we have a sustained flow rate of between 2.1 and 2.5 from Lorelle and confirmation that the remaining zones have contributed to a sustained flow.
Whether you chose to add a glass half full or glass half empty lense to that is completely your call.
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