Gold and macro environment, page-203

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Prisoner24601

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06/09/24

22:57

Post #: 75570127
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Originally posted by calmbeforestorm: ↑

agree with your comments - apparently the consensus view is for unemployment to go down to 4.2% and NFP to be quite good. So if unemployment goes up 0.1% to 0.2% the sharemarket is going to look very bleak and the odds of the Fed cutting by 50bp will go up a lot. And if the Fed does cut by 0.5% the sharemarket is going to look ugly since it will be an admission they cut too late and will be perceived as a panic move! POG will likely go down in that scenario as investors sell it to make margin calls and ditto for gold stocks but there will go down even more and then it will be bargain hunting time for SPR for a little while as gold will adjust and probably go a lot higher.

Butthen other scenario is unemployment rates does go down!

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Looks like a fair result on that data release in the US. NFP (jobs added) a miss to the downside but not a disaster: 142k v 164k forecast. Unemployment came back down to 4.2%. Currently USD down a little, futures slightly improve, gold up a bit.
A quarter percent cut looks good to go.
Hopefully gold holds up overnight and the great run continues.

SPR Price at posting: $1.28 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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