- I have copied the guidance provided by MIN for FY25 (Costs are in AUD)- Your post is lacking substance and inaccurate at best, perhaps with an intention to cause fear.
- Yilgarn is 3 months from closing down - Not sure why you would even mention that it is not profitable. Wonder why they are closing down?
- Pilbara hub at middle of guidance A$81 or US$54. You have learned buzzwords like freight, royalty, moisture etc but don't actually know how to calculate any of that. If you work that out Pilbara hub is not yet loss making even if you consider DALAIN price from Friday which you think is "horrible".
- Despite the ramp up going on at Onslow the guidance is $63 mid point - Do the maths on that and you will see that this is making a profit despite the ramp up. Do you know how to do that maths on this? Freight cost? Royalty rate ? Discount ? Is the discount for moisture and impurities or a category of its own as per your fear inducing post?
- Do you know what a slight drop in iron ore shipments do to shipping and freight?
- Do you know Royalty reduces with realised price?
- Lithium operations operating at considerable loss? WTF? The spot price was US$748 i.e AUD 1100. The FOB costs below are all in AUD. Add landed costs and take out royalties etc. These projects are not making a "considerable loss". They are breakeven. Not saying thats a good thing. Dont forget that for $300-$400M they can all be switched off any time to stop the bleeding if market gets "considerably" worse. I used your word here so you can understand better.
- Your post nowhere makes a mention of $600M plus EBITDA from Services. It wont cause fear than will it?
- There is 1.3B coming from MSIP in a months time, There is $600M of JV carry loans that will amortise from free cash flows of onslow on top of EBITDA
- IO prepayment, Rehab provision out of control??? WTF ????? None of the assets are going into rehab. Its a fking provision. Not a current liability. Would you rather MINRES not provide for future rehab?. IO prepayment was a level that was pulled to manage cash flows. It brings forward some of the value from the 25% remaining iron ore volumes that MINRES hasnt already allocated to BAOWU. Do you know Baowu is buying 75% of volumes??? and Likely Trafigura buying the remaining? So scary
- Lastly, look at the fkicng share price of $30 - there is zero value being put of any of the mining operations here. As per the Analysts that follow MINRES and have detailed modelling the Services division alone is worth a lot more than this. It is fking real bro. Not a fake number like yours. Most analysts still have a price target above $40.
Fck off with your lies and fear mongering.
MIN Price at posting:
$30.65 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)