This run up is amazing. far better than I expected. That said It has happened before and fallen apart. No real reason. I know many think it is the recent small quota rises but China is still producing less than Quota allow so how big of an impact do quota's have? Right now i will admit that the concern about REE prices have been meet. Magnet prices rising 15 RMB in 8 days is the most encouraging sign for me. REEO needs high magnet prices for the money to filter down to oxides. Countering this is Li continued fall though a tremendous amount of magnets used are battery powered not just cars. But tools and a small appliances. There has been a large jump in 99.5% pure Li capacity it is hard to judge what Li dropping means because of this.
These prices should encourage Lynas to ship more and put less into inventory. they added about 14M in H2 Q1 revenue should show some of the impact of price run up. Q2 for sure. We need the notes in in SAR to now what Lynas is doing with finished goods inventory.
In conclusion if they start shipping more demonstrating they can make what they say. and prices continue to rise at even half this rate they have i am buying for sure. Price is not important. if these two things happen SP will be good regardless if i buy at 6.00 or 8.00.
Excell only allows 255 data points in a variable. I have temporarily cut off beginning so the present can be seen I will make more permanent changes soon. There are many ways to fix this but for right now I have not decided how I want to do it. 2 years ago i just removed about a year and ah laf of data I think seeing the peak of 1100 is important, Do not want to do that this time. I will point out the Many june 2022 rise was steeper and higher than this one. Since then this is the steepest run up. Total change this run up is still small. It amazes how may people that have said buy consistently for many years say it is OK that they missed the Fall because they "are long term holders" Yet are cheering like crazy after only 6 weeks of positive change.
You can make the chart tell any story you want by just changing the time frame. Many people do this with TA. Look above the 6 week chart is extremely positive. Longer term I will let you decide what to use. To help you here is some info on historical EPS. Pick what you think is an EPS that would have the SP at what you would like then look to see what NdPrO prices were.
2024 AR EPS 9 cents
2024 SAR EPS 4.2 x 2 = 8.4 Cents
2023 AR EPS 34 cents
2023 SAR EPS 16 X2 = 32cents
2022 AR EPS 60 cents
Since 2018 AL has been promising beater production. So far we are still at the original name plate. I know they have spent 1.4B in cap X and i am sure we will see an improvement. Until I see it in production volumes I will not consider it in my calculations. Always better safe than sorry is what I invest by.
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