someone was interested in entering the numbers into a model. did it. two different scenarios (study/goldman sachs).
since there is a ~15m usd difference between the original capex and the presumed capex after cr/offtake (in addition to the current 40% construction progress of the original stage 1 dfs), i simulated both assumed scenarios w/ and without additional debt of ~15m usd. i'm assuming that the cash balance is currently at 0 usd. yes, it doesn't correspond to reality, but it is impossible for me to say how much money is currently available in jp's pocket.
i made the opex costs per tonne more expensive by 150 usd and increased the sustaining capex by 5% to simulate a price increase. i strongly assume that at least in the first few years opex costs will be significantly higher than in study. reasons for this: 1.) reduction of output. 2.) i don't think that the transport costs have been sufficiently taken into account. just my opinion, everyone should evaluate this for themselves. i also expect a discount on the spot price for sales as part of the offtake. this is in addition to the 72.30% payability assumed from the study. i'm assuming 745.7m shares, plus the outstanding performance shares and options. that's why my total soi of 843m is clearly too high. since we're currently in financing phase, my personal margin of safety is currently just 50%. i simulated the mcap in production based on future fcf w/ a ratio of 8. i also factored in a country risk premium of 22.15% for argentina and discounted it. the ratio of 8 is currently relatively high. i think in the long term it will be in the 3-5 range. this is roughly the range in which coal companies currently are.
if anyone wants a deep dive into the calculation you can write me at any time on x. i wish every sh only the best for the future. what many forget is that galan is currently in production. things are currently coming together to form a big picture. i wish the team/mgmt and especially everyone who has currently been hit hard that we sell the first product in 2025 & also get a realistic timetable for the presumably lucrative stage two. it will still be a tough road until then. good luck everyone.
no financial advice. always do your own research! always keep in mind that these are just assumptions based on my input. they may contain errors. there is never a guarantee that individual events will occur. the financial market doesn't work the way we think it will. it's all designed to completely bulldoze retail investors. never make financial decisions based on fancy pictures on the internet.
4.000t / study / additional debt
4.000t / study
4.000t / goldman sachs / additional debt
4.000t / goldman sachs
(20min delay)