EV sales have not fallen, cooled, slowed or slumped. Stop lying in headlines.

Jameson Dow | Sep 10 2024

EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.

Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.

This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.

In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.

Clearly, growth percentages will need to trend downward as a new product category grows. It would be impossible for them not to.

To take an extreme example, it would be odd to say that sales are slumping in Norway, which just set a record at 94% EV market share in August with 10,480 units moved, because BEV sales only went up 5% compared to the previous August’s 9,974 units.

And yet, this mathematical necessity has been reported time and time again in media, and by anti-EV political forces, as if EV sales are down, despite that they continue to rise.

The actual short-term status of EV sales – they’re still up

Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.

It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.

There are a number of other shorter-term influences, including a slowdown in Supercharger/NACS progress after the entire charging team was fired which could be leading consumers to wait until the NACS transition is ready, political agitation by an ignorant presidential candidate which may cool after the election is finally over with and his fans’ short attention span moves elsewhere (pretty please), a misguided new tariff that has resulted in some automakers shuffling (and thus delaying) their plans, lack of available models for anyone who wants something other than a gigantic SUV, certain automakers intentionally confusing consumers into buying hybrids, and limitations on EV tax credits (which are nevertheless bypassable).

Finally, some have suggested that this is a natural part of any technology adoption curve, as a technology transitions from being used by “early adopters” to “early majority.” Most consider the “chasm” between these groups to be somewhere around the 10-20% adoption range.

Media keeps pretending up is down

In covering these trends, some journalists have at least used the correct phrasing “slower growth,” showing that EV sales are still growing, but at a lower percentage change than previously seen.

But many, or perhaps even most, have taken the lazy – and incorrect – route of using descriptors that make it seem like sales have gone down, despite that they continue to go up.

https://electrek.co/2024/09/10/ev-sales-have-not-fallen-cooled-slowed-or-slumped-stop-lying-in-headlines/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFOAtxleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHVGzgC_v9LpoGBDXoAIQl6uhH50iM600RIDrVuuUGKi1c-rjLhQozuxC0Q_aem_wppxypWT5ENGJc50BBeepA