History repeats? This uptrend is very similar to the last one peaking at 20.5c!
Why I Love Technical Trading
Technical trading captivates me because of the abundance of algorithms and trading bots in the market, all programmed by individuals following similar frameworks and theories. Since these systems operate based on established rules, their behaviour remains relatively predictable. This is why we often see history repeating itself in stock price patterns.
PYC is in an uptrend again
In the second half of 2019, PYC Therapeutics experienced a steady price rise, fuelled by investor optimism and positive developments in its biotech pipeline. Similarly, since May 2024, the stock has rallied by over 38% within just a few months, bolstered by confidence in the company's future growth potential.
Looking at PYC's weekly chart, we can observe a striking resemblance between the uptrend from 2c on 20.052019, to the peak of 20.5c on 12.10.2019, and the ongoing trend since 06.05.2024. In fact, if you replicate the upper trend line (represented by blue dashes) from the 2c trough on 20.05.2019, and apply it to the 5c trough on 09.10.2023, the gradient matches the current uptrend exactly.
As long as no major disruptive factors—like clinical trial setbacks or broader market fluctuations—intervene, the stock price should continue its upward trajectory. This allows us to project possible timelines for reaching key price levels (noting that these projections are based on weekly data, as we are analysing a weekly chart).
Optimistically
- 17c on 23.09.2024
- 20c on 02.12.2024
- 23c on 17.03.2025
On Average
- 17c on 16.12.2024
- 20c on 03.03.2025
- 23c on 09.06.2025
Pessimistically
- 17c on 17.03.2025
- 20c on 26.05.2025
- 23c on 08.09.2025
Key Fibonacci Levels to Watch for the Rest of 2024:
- Pivot: 9.2c
- Resistance 1 (R1): 13.5c
- Resistance 2 (R2): 15.5c
- Resistance 3 (R3): 20c
PYC's share price (SP) is expected to encounter resistance at each of these Fibonacci levels, potentially pulling back before gaining the momentum to break higher. A recent example of this behaviour occurred on 17.06.2024, when the SP hit R1 at 13.5c but retraced to 9.2c by July 29, 2024, before bouncing back. Three weeks later, the SP decisively broke through R1, closing at 14c and hitting a higher high of 14.5c, a very bullish signal as it closed at the peak.
The next key level is 15.5c. With only a 2c gap, favourable news could provide the necessary catalyst to push through this resistance. However, R3 at 20c will be more challenging as it aligns with a previous peak, where some investors may look to take profits. Being a psychological barrier, the SP may consolidate around 20c until sellers exhaust their positions.
Upcoming Catalysts for a BreakthroughDuring the last Investor’s Call, CEO Rohan Hockings mentioned that PYC plans to release clinical trial results and efficacy data in Q4 2024. Breaking through the 20c mark could be very likely, especially if business development (BD) deals materialize, potentially accompanied by an upfront payment that could significantly boost PYC’s market capitalization (MC), thereby re-rating the stock. In such a scenario, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) could drive the SP to new highs.
Potential Business Development (BD) Deals and Stock Price Projections:
RP-11 Drug – SP Projection: 22.5c
With a US$1 billion addressable market in the US and assuming a 25% upfront payment plus royalties, PYC’s market cap could rise by A$385M, translating to an additional 8c per share. This would lift the SP to 22.5c from the current 14.5c.
ADOA Drug – SP Projection: 30.5c
Similarly, the ADOA drug targets a US$2 billion market. A 25% upfront payment would increase PYC’s market cap by A$770M, adding 16c to the share price, pushing it to 30.5c.
Stochastic Indicator a reliable Buy/Sell Signal
The Slow Stochastic indicator on the bottom of the chart is also yielding important Buy/Sell signals. Whenever it crossing 50% on the way up, it is a “Blue Sky” BUY signal. Conversely, when it drops down crossing 50%, it would be a “Doomed” SELL signal.
Based on the above, there were only 3 times that the signals have been triggered:
- 09.09.2019 BUY at 4.6c
- 13.09.2021 SELL at 15c
- 22.01.2024 BUY at 8.4c
Wouldn’t you be smiling to the bank had you followed these signals? DYOR.
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