Market Research, page-86

based on todays SP, AM will have an implied mkt cap of between $980m and $1.134bn

positive catalysts:
1. $140m annualised!
the PDL acq costs will end just before the demerger!! finally!! PDL screwed them! We will wear 6 more months of these significant items before they are set to disappear for good! H2 will start to receive the relief from these costs, $140m UPSIDE per year!!!

2. ~$60m interest

Thats an end to $200m of significant costs that can be pa$$ed thru to you know who....!

3. Feb dividend will be BAU, from all three divisions: AM, corp trust and wealth which should be a juicy divi

negative catalysts:
1. JO FUM

we may lose a chunk of JO (given the write down) and some of TSW, but how much is already priced in? p/b will be <1, p/e will be in the range of 4-5 (max) given the savings above.


$200m BPT +$200m (PDL sign items+loan interest expense savings) (above) = $400m PBT, less reduction in JO & FUM impacts on revenue. However, you can assume any FUM drops (revenue) will be equally met with expense reductions (over time), so PBT should remain unchanged?

at $1bn, we are valued at LESS THAN REGAL.

CRAZY