manipulation part 2, page-3

Lets break this down to 4 Plans.

Plan A: Has been a classic case of SP rising pre-spud & then subsequent profit-taking. A hallmark of many speccy stocks where the project is still years away & where there's an element of risk involved.

Plan-B: Could more likely b on the lines of buy back once it pulls back & the SP settles & ride it again with tight stops.

Plan-C: Would b worse-case scenario (water wet sands aka Z#1 & everybody's worst nightmare).

Plan-D: The shorters. Here's the link to the 2 Dec ASX shorts report. Shows that out of 19.2mil volume that day, ~3.77% was shorted (~725k shares).

Add to that the (un)timely CR & u have the perfect storm in a tea-cup (panic/ mass hysteria etc).

Whatever happens with the Calypso & Legendre sands in the nxt 10 days, in my view, the mkt will still need a solid entry signal, as not everyone knows what a semi-sub is or how offshore drilling/testing works given that its a one off well for the time being. So the avg. punter could still freak out despite a positive update, unless the boys with deeper pockets start buying back bigtime (i.e: high vol).

Looking back, at Z#1, MEO annc'd gas shows in 44m of the total 143m of the Legendre Formation (~3.3% total gas readings, refer mkt release dt 11th Feb09) & then 24 hrs later (refer 12th Feb '09 update & wireline log in their Nov '09 preso) had the 'water wet update'. Those 2 updates literally stumped & stunned the crowd. Add to that 'Cambrian' who were selling at various stages of the drilling. In the end the SP got smashed to 7c. That's all in the past.

Worth noting at A#1 is that, MEO have trimmed out the water-wet sands to the east, by recalibrating the seismics frm Z#1 & remapping the DHI's over the current structure (as DavoM mentioned in his AGM preso). So chances of gas saturated sands should b good & they r getting close to getting all their questions answered.

Into the business end of the well & am reminded of that famous TopGun track by Kenny Loggins, ride into the Dangerzone.