AGY argosy minerals limited

Ann: Half Year Accounts, page-61

  1. 14,786 Posts.
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    Iirc the company made it quite clear that they have paused the rectification and ramp up activities at Rincon due to the current and forecast market environment, at least for the near-term, yet will ensure that operations can recommence when circumstances allow. They reduced the workforce very significantly as part of this.
    Afaict, this was done so that we did not get to a point, be that in 3 months or 6 months or whenever, where we have little funds remaining and are losing money on product being sold.
    What would happen then? Repeated CRs at lower and lower share price to keep pushing ahead; exactly what many GLN shareholders are vocally complaining about right now btw!!!
    We are in a pickle; and it was undoubtedly a decision not made lightly.

    The focus is currently on the pre-development engineering works for the expansion to help facilitate a partnership and funding solution.
    They are clearly busy getting those ducks lined up so we can move on to the next phase with minimal further delay.
    Or would you/others prefer “accountability” by getting rid of everyone and doing nothing?
    Imo this perpetuated notion that Puna is simply a collection of family and mates milking $$ is simply laughable. Absurd, imo, alongside the notion that the answer is simply to “bring in others” to magically solve all our problems. How many Li brine plants are there in existence? Simply assuming (as some here clearly are) that some contractor would have had a far better outcome with our plant is not supported by adequate precedents, the variability of brine resources, and the limited global expertise in this specific field, afaik.

    Has anyone else here bothered to estimte total personnel-related costs on a per-tonne basis, and examined how that varies with the expansion..??
    Didn’t think so. The numbers might surprise you.
    Instead, the haters carry on about how we can’t possibly make money with a larger plant if the current one isn’t currently viable…. Yet they provide no analysis of costs or economies of scale. Funny that.

    Afaict the mechanical issues with the primary filtration circuit are understood but a proper fix requires further work and further investment. They’ve had to pause this. This does not necessarily mean that they cannot get it sorted and cannot get the plant humming along.

    ATL have undoubtedly made these queries. Why on earth would they have not?! Had they not been provided reasonable answers, and did not have confidence that future supply was achievable, they would never have invested USD$5M in the company, imo.
    Haters will claim that the company simply made a bunch of hollow promises and that ATL just blindly believed them…. Yeah righteo.


    Can we or not reach the proposed production amount that they have claimed?

    We obviously don’t know until the plant works recommence. This is on pause. I thought this was clear…?

    What are we going to do now to demonstrate if we can?

    Recommence plant works and ramp-up when market conditions turn more favourable and support profitably producing say 1000-1500 tonnes over 12 months, and justify rebuilding the required workforce….?

    What are our options until market turned around?

    Preserve capital and “focus its near-term works on the value-upside of the Project and prioritise the completion of the 10,000tpa project pre-development engineering works to achieve a construction-ready stage”
    I thought this was clear…?

    Afaict, management and the board have determined that this is, on balance, the best path forward at the current time. Again, it would not have been a decision taken lightly, especially considering the impact it had on the Puna workforce and operations, and associated future challenges that will arise when the tide turns.

    It appears that the alternative was to keep pushing forward with getting the plant sorted and humming along, with the possibility of that putting us in a position of needing capital injections at market lows…. I can just imagine shareholders then complaining about the company not acting sooner to avoid tapping the market in a more desperate situation, while potentially selling product at a loss…. Imagine the haters’ glee at that point!


    Imo there really aren’t too many big questions at this stage…. We are riding out the storm as best we can whilst chipping away at our next big milestone, which is funding the expansion.


    ps. We could have taken the “traditional path” and be sitting on a couple of tonnes of product (if that), some resource figures and a dfs and waiting for someone to throw us a few hundred million….. how do you think that would have gone and would be going in the current market?

    pps. What do you think ATL asked the company?
    Any tough questions about plant issues etc…?


    Tough times for sure, but imo there is some comfort in seeing our alignment within the broader market - as frustrating as the current conditions are, alongside the disruption of our project.
    increasing commentary about the unsustainability of current pricing might lead to some decent green shoots emerging before the year is out, imo.
    In the meantime, we wait, frustrated and beaten down….

    Imo
    Dyor
 
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