I think the answer is that it's hard to say, but historically, it seems you can usually buy cheaper around the time of the dividend payment date (i.e. cheaper than the declared DVP issue price); see Post #: 72078510
As I recognised in that post, many smaller investors may not have enough dividend to purchase a viable parcel each time, but you could adopt a practice of saving divvies and buying on dips from time to time.
I can't see any obvious reason the SP would retreat after payment date, but it did so after the 28 March divvie, where it had dropped around $5 two weeks on. Regardless of that, the biggest dips (this year) don't appear to be related, being March week 2, April week 2/3 & of course August week 1.
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