tindalo, page-18

Hi boysy,

Not really - IF the uppermost ECP seals...

It is just a question of the ease with which water can flow to the wellbore - if there is a totally homogeneous formation then the oil water contact will be distorted slightly by the pressure drop.

If that homogeneous reservoir has fairly low permeability (which limestone matrix does) and then you put a big fracture with high permeability down to the aquifer, then water will be drawn up the high perm fracture.

If the fracture exists but is relatively low permeability then there might be some water production but not a whole lot.

If there is an uncemented annulus (read massive permeability conduit) as we had once the swell packer failed last time then all you will get is water because the pressure in the wellbore can not be reduced enough to cause oil to flow from the matrix without so much water flowing from the reservoir that processing capacity is exceeded.

So, the 2nd zone seems to have a relatively high perm conduit to the reservoir, the first zone less so.

If the old wellbore is isolated by the uppermost ECP and there is not a high perm fracture the the upper zones will probably produce nicely. If the old wellbore is not isolated or there is a high perm fracture in either of the zones then it will probably produce at a very high water cut.

There are two shots at having another zone that produces relatively dry oil and even an overall average watercut of 50% (and it shouldn't be that bad) is 10,000 bbl of oil per day at a total flow rate of 20,000 bbl/day.

I don't think that the overall rate will be 20k/day but I dont think that the average water cut will be 50% either...

8,000 bopd is very possible (and could easily be exceeded) and that rate makes good money if it lasts for a couple of years...

p1000