Weekly Review U Stocks - 27th Sep 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 after doing a new high last week after couple of failed attempts, now consolidating, but positively. Most of the trading happened this week on 5700s, made a new high of 5767, and finished at 5738, just over 0.5% from last week. Still looking very bullish.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 16.96, last week at 16.15, so similar range, under 20 indicating strong bull state of markets
- Sentiment Indicator still in Greed at 68, last week it was Greed at 63. So after fluctuations last several weeks, now back to back Greed. Is representative now how the market is going
- Bitcoin is back on rampage, enjoying the strong bull market, last week at 63k, this week at 66k. Getting ready for another all time in 70ks soon.
- Russell 2000 still not doing great. We need it to outperform so that all risk-on assets do well, resources. commodities etc. It has been weakest indicator. Last week it was playing average, but this week, again weak. Finished at 2224, last week at 2227, so actually down for the week.
- Yields increased, again, even with rate cuts, but not much, sitting at 3.75, last week at 3.72
- Dollar Index too going up like Yields
- Gold, Silver up, Oil down - Gold at 2680, last week 2647, Silver at 31.92, last week 31.50, lost, Oil back to 60s, at 68.64, last week at 71.77,
- So overall markets looking great. Last week I wrote I feel, its - "very positive". I still feel that - "very positive"
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 after doing a new all time high this week, would be eyeing 6000 figure. It may happen, but not immediately though.
- Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
- Economic data next week, mainly around jobs, PMI etc. But more importantly Mr Powell will talk on Monday night - he can move markets
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. We have reached September end, but I usually take one more week, so we wait for first week of October to assess. But we have had very good time, most stocks are between 30 to 60% up from their lows, so very good last few weeks. This week 15% increase across 33 U stocks, one of best week of the year. Last week I had written if CCJ can cross 45, that will be very bullish. It did that on Monday itself, and more importantly, stayed above 45 for the whole week. Its eyeing next number of 50, reached 49.28 this week. I follow trading patterns. Currently CCJ is playing exactly like 6 months back. End of March. 6 straight greens. Moved from 42 to 50, around 20% increase. 7th day a small red. CCJ had 6 straight 6 greens now in end of September, like March. Moved from 41 to 49, around 20% increase. Seventh day, on Friday, it had a small red. So its played exactly as 6 months back. In March, then it played around 50 (+/- 2) for a month, before doing a back test of 45. The 45 held. Then it took another month and made a new high at 56.24. What will happen this time? Circumstances may be different, fundamentals different. I usually play patterns. And I was playing this pattern, also wrote mid-week on one thread. Now I have taken some off the table and will watch what happens next. If I like the trend, I will immediately buy. That's my play. Sector is bullish. A long term hold may be good as most play, its individual choice.
- Lithium Sector overview - This week Li sector has given hopes that the sector may have bottomed and we could see a reversal. Many ASX and US Li stocks were over 20% from their lows last week. This week they gained further, and many are now over 30% rom their lows. The only issue was Ganfeng. It was doing new lows every week. And price was within 2% of its lows. I had written that we cannot have a party, unless Ganfeng joins the party. So the divergence has to go - either ASX/US Li stocks fall, or Ganfeng rise. And what happened? Ganfeng made a weekly gain of around 25% this week, it has removed the divergence, and its saying - lets have the party. It was lagging behind, so while many stocks gained 10/15%, Ganfeng went big for 25, to catch up. But its still early days. For over 2 years, we have seen some of these bursts happening. Unfortunately none of them materialised. And soon stocks gave up the gains, and then went lower. And lower. So that can still happen. We need confirmation, hopefully in the next few days and weeks, whether we really have a reversal. The first check will be for ALB to get over 106, Ganfeng to get over 35/36. If they get over that, and most importantly, stay there, odds of a reversal would considerably increase. Till then, its best to follow price. I have gone big in the sector last 2 days, hoping that we see a reversal. But if the signs are not good, then I may exit. Please dyor, check risk/reward, I have taken a punt.
- REE Sector overview - REE sector too doing better this week, mirroring what's happening to the Li sector. Across 30 stocks that I track, it gained 6% for the week. Li sector made 5% gain across 90 stocks. So similar play.
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Personally:
Things have changed for me this week. Was playing mostly Uranium stocks till last week. Have taken some off the table and moved it to Li sector. Li stocks that I am playing are - (AZL/AGY/GL1/GLN/INR/LTR/PLL/PMT/SYA/WC8/WR1). I I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Other plays - Main health stocks - DXB (26)/BOT (17)/PYC (7.5), Gold - PNR (5.2). I was writing I was looking at MEI/ENR for last few week, picked some MEI this week at 11 and ENR at 42.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE played mostly in 4.6/5.3 zone, few days touched 5, which happened after couple of months.
- From a weekly perspective moved from 4.1 to 4.8, so very good gain this week. Play was similar to many other U stocks, so playing the macro at this stage.
- No ASX U stocks that I track did a 52 week high this week, again this week. But many U stocks are now 30 to 60% from their lows. So the game has changed. Its not about finding bottom now. Its now how to get to top. So a great week from that perspective.
- U stocks still down 25% for the year, so a lot of ground to cover back, drop of nearly 60% from January highs.
- This week average gain was 15% across 33 U stocks that I track. By far this was the best week for the year.
- Currently I have again exited most of my AGE stock, only due to technical reasons based on CC play - its an indecisive point, so I want to wait. So had a play from 4.1 to 5. Before that recently as wrote I had my first play from 3.55 to 4.6. I am sure I will be back soon, at what price I don't know yet, could be higher, could be lower.
- U future is now at 82.00, last week at 79.50, so small gain there. After nearly a month below 80, its now back up, so that's good. But it has been hovering in the 80s for nearly whole year after making 106 in January, so needs to get higher.
- On Friday US U were in slight red, general markets mixed. Could be a tentative/indecisive start for us on Monday, narrow range, waiting for US night play
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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(20min delay)