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The Elevator Goes Both Ways, page-13

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Teddyward

9,465 Posts.

897

30/09/24

22:22

Post #: 75915490
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Originally posted by Black_Swan: ↑

Nuheara (ASX:NUH) - the worst tech investment, that isn't yet bankrupt, ever?

High level summary. Useless commentary below. Prices are adjusted for dilution, so so so much dilution...

Price when original article released (29/5/19): $29.60

Price when posted here (10/1/22): $6.40

Current share price: $0.16

Loss aversion
1. Price fall since posting here: ~97%

Growth needed:
1. To get back to 2021: 40x growth
2. To get to 2019: 185x growth

ASX200 accumulation index returns:
1. 27/5/19 to today: 29.2% (6.1% p.a.)

Just a quick update mostly acting as a statically unreliable n=1 that you can spot a decent short sale. At a minimum, if you haven't got the stomach for shorting then at least this is decent proof of a company not to invest in.

Basically, share price is down just short (no pun intended) of 100%. Is it possible to make it back from here? I mean, sure, anything is possible. If I were selling the dream is recall stories of Amazon when it fell 94.4% between the 1999 high of $5.32 and the 2001 low of $0.29. Today's price of $127.12 would make for a ~440x gain. This story and ones like it are the ones I'd lean into if I were management right now.

But let's be real here. A small Australian company battling against global giants in the audio market (or is it the pseudo medical audio market now? - just buy Cochlear shares people) with a huge cash burn rate, barely any sales and a fast and smooth talking CEO capable of raising hopes, dreams, and equity but little else isn't the stuff of Amazon returns.

And so that brings us back to loss aversion. How many people have hung on for grim death in the hopes the company will turn? How many have been honest, even when averaging down, about the sheer scale of shares price rises need just to break even? How many compared their investment in a two bit tech money pit to three 6.1% p.a. they should have been collecting from a brain power free ASX200 index fund? It's probably fair to say many have elected to ignore their holdings "what's the point of selling, I'm already down 'insert %'" or they've deluded themselves that things are about to turn, but tomorrow is always a day away.

All of that is to say, sometimes you really can spot a dud investment just from reading the publically available information. It was a bad increment in 2019 and you still would have stopped a further 97% loss (on your already heavily loss making holdings) if you'd only managed to sell out in 2022.

I look forward to seeing how the future plays out with Nuheara. Will it be the next Amazon? Or will the management team continue to line their pockets at the expense of shareholders until the whole show finally collapses and management retires to Dalkeith with their millions in executive compensation? I know which is more likely...

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Well the music has nearly stopped

Originally posted by batboy: ↑

So you turn up 2 yrs later to say I told you so?

my data says about 0.3% of stock is currently shorted

so I think you are here for some reason that I can’t understand

but your essentially irrelevant

anyway the current so imo is simply a reflection of the shite performance of the company and
the inexplicable lack of communication from the ceo

” mass production “ should read: mass turbation

im
thinking ? A bit on the spectrum

Expand

Yep can basically say it 2 years later

NUH Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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