overly euphoric share price

Personally I think they will find gas. The geology of the area is well understood. They're drilling in the middle of numerous gas discoveries. The exploration techniques they use are proven. The success rate in the NWS is very high.

My biggest problem is trying to determine how overly high the share price will go when they do announce a gas discovery. I expect the share will initially overshoot. The profit takers will then move in. It will then be oversold before bouncing back and settling at a realistic price. I'm hoping to sell at or near the high and buy back in at the oversold point.

I would think any share price under a $1 would be a steal for Petrobras. At a $1 it would cost them $540 million to buy MEO. If Artemis lives up to expectation then Petrobras will have to pay MEO a $31.5 million bonus which will give MEO over $130 million in cash. Petrobras could probably offload NT/P68, Tassie Shoals, and the other bits and pieces for $100-200 million. For the NT/P68 farmout, MEO is looking for someone to drill 2 wells at $60 million each for a 50% share. So I think Petrobras could easily find someone to take the lot. In which case Petrobras could pick up another 25% of Artemis for $200-300 million. Which is probably about one tenth of its value if it lives up to expectation.

With 75% of Artemis it removes problems dealing with the other pesky partners, it provides economies of scale plus MEO's tax losses.

On a discovery I can't see MEO's share price settling below the $1 mark. So if it's going to overshoot I'm guessing $1.20 to $1.70.