and you seem to have a problem with scientific organisations changing their opinions on the light of new evidence and findings
clearly - you believe in not changing your mind on the light of new evidence
suggests that you have the mind of a simpleton unable to change or be flexible
Don't worry about replying --------- no one is interested in your brainless opinions without references - and not X or fb or other bullshit sites
The early models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented mixed predictions regarding the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
## Predictions on Frequency and Intensity
1. **Frequency of Cyclones**: - Many early IPCC models suggested a **decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones** globally. For instance, some studies indicated a **30% decrease** in tropical cyclone frequency in certain models, while others showed a **6% decrease globally**, with variations depending on regional factors such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [1]. More recent analyses have corroborated this trend, indicating that climate change has driven a **13% decline** in tropical cyclone frequency since pre-industrial times [3].
2. **Intensity of Cyclones**: - While the frequency of storms appeared to decline, many models projected an **increase in the intensity of those storms that do occur**. Higher-resolution models indicated consistent increases in peak wind speeds and precipitation intensity associated with future tropical cyclones [1][2]. For example, projections suggested a significant increase in the number of intense storms (Category 4 and 5) due to warmer sea surface temperatures, despite an overall decrease in total cyclone numbers [2].
3. **Regional Variations**: - The predictions also highlighted regional differences. For example, while there was a global decrease in cyclone frequency, some regions, particularly the North Atlantic, showed an increase in storm activity over recent decades, attributed to natural variability and changes in local air pollution levels [3].
## Summary
In summary, early IPCC models generally predicted **less frequent but more intense tropical cyclones** as a result of climate change. This pattern reflects the complex interplay between various climatic factors and highlights significant regional variability in cyclone behavior.
Citations: [1] https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-6-3.html [2] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ [3] https://www.carbonbrief.org/tropical-cyclones-now-13-less-frequent-due-to-climate-change/ [4] https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/IPCC/ [5] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/ [6] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094717300440 [7] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1301293110
