political stability in cameroon

The President of Cameroon, Paul Biya, has been in his position since 1982.

Elections were held in 2004, where he again won power by winning 71% of the vote. A clear winner in anyones estimation.

In 1996, new laws were enacted to call for the establishment of a 100-member senate as part of a bicameral legislature, the creation of regional councils, and the fixing of the presidential term to 7 years, renewable once. One-third of senators are to be appointed by the President, and the remaining two-thirds are to be chosen by indirect elections. As of July 2008, the government has not established the Senate or regional councils.

As Paul Biya is now ending his second 7 year term in 2011 (since the legislation was enacted), it begs the question of who is going to be the next leader of the Cameroon's People Democratic Movement, and will that person be supportive of the current status quo, re the Mbalam convention. One would imagive they would be, but change always brings with it uncertainty.

One can assume that based on the current political climate in Cameroon, which is supported by the citizens of Cameroon conducting themselves in a civil manner into the future and upholding the rule of law in Cameroon, then continuity of order will be maintained post elections. But as I said above, change brings uncertainty.

I personally expect "business as usual" post election, but one cannot have blind faith to continuity of this happening. DYOR here.

I am long SDL and see the risk/reward trade off here is within my risk appetite.

I just thought I should point this out to all here as it has not been identified by anyone previously as a risk. It is a risk.

Bon apetite!