SP dropping below $4.00 hurts, page-108

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Nick1970

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08/10/24

11:39

Post #: 76024076
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Originally posted by skoonzy: ↑

Dividend isn't currently covered by FCF.

They're projecting $50 million in staff cuts and $30 million in OPEX savings over the next year. To me that gets their FCF to around $400M. If NZ interest rate cuts flow through to interest costs and price increases also come through I think they're predicting $440M in FCF at the high end. Could be other factors that need to work in their favour to get that.

Current dividend requires around $500M FCF by my calculations if no DRP uptake. So could be a >=10% dividend cut coming or they take on more debt to fund it.

If they get around 10% to 20% DRP uptake then maybe it's still affordable. That's effectively a dividend cut, though, for non-DRP folks as they get diluted.

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I reckon buyers should forecast a 33% drop in the dividend and value it from there. So IMO 17c income is about 6% where we currently are.

SPK Price at posting: $2.78 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $2.31		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $4.364B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.32	$2.34	$2.31	$2.411M	1.040M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	17755	$2.31

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.34	9396	4

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	17755	2.310
20	55427	2.300
2	2419	2.290
6	44525	2.280
2	15000	2.260

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.340	9396	4
2.380	40820	2
2.390	20833	3
2.400	30003	7
2.420	11611	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 13/08/2025 (20 minute delay)

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SP dropping below $4.00 hurts, page-108

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SP dropping below $4.00 hurts, page-108

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