CHN chart, page-9214

Could be, also might not be. That statement, which lacks any backed evidence, was only suited to pump your positional bias.

I note the Palladium price, for which a large majority of the deposit will be generating revenue from, was assumed to be $2000/oz for the LOM. It has since halved. Similarly, Ni was $24000/t, now it is at $17,700. Copper, forecast at $11000/t, now $9742. Cobalt, forecast at $46000/t, now at $24300/t. And then there's gold, which has had a very nice run. Unfortunately, it seems to compose such a small fraction of the deposit (notably, ~22koz/per year for LOM). If it comprised a larger portion, as a "blue chip" commodity, it would have been a great hedge against the volatility of the other metals.

Although the scoping is early stage, the tax-free cash flow per annum seems to have been reduced to $250m with these prices, which currently looks like a payback period of 8 years with current estimated CAPEX (1.6billion). The nosedive in MC makes sense with regards to this, as the remaining cashflow for LOM post-CAPEX payback would be net $2.25b. With a MC of currently 550m, this rings alarm bells for me, as the current MC is 1/5th of this value already, and there is still risk going forward with the DFS.

Palladium may also have further pressure on its price from a de-escalation of the Russio-Ukraine war. With the eventual phase out to EV's, and the scrapping of old C-converters for recycling (for which currently 80% of Pd has been utilized for), I think there is reason to worry of both future oversupply and under-demand.

Unfortunate that such high price assumptions were made. Not unheard of though - conservatism often gets left in the dust to prop-up economics, where it should be the other way around. I suspect (hopefully) it will be done properly during PFS/DFS.

Happy to be shown solid evidence contrary to any of the above, this is just my preliminary take. I'll be watching the project from the side, but for now I won't be buying in. Good luck to current holders.