recency effect - a case study, page-43

I don't think i'll be throwing my hat in the ring for being a mod anytime soon BDZ.
Really don't envy thier job, although to be honest i was dissapointed that one post in particular wasn't modded which was name calling with zero content.
Probably going to take a hotcopper break for a while(or at least a slowdown) to get some real fundamental analysis done, seem to be neglecting this in favour of charting and shooting the breeze on HC.
Haven't added a longterm buy to my list for a while now, really got to lift my game :)

I'll also throw my hat into the ring quickly in regards to QBE results.

Working off memory (whis is dangerous)

There will be NO $400+ million writedown for starters so just that alone smashes previous result, not only that currently sitting on a $150million write up!
Thats a $550million turnaround since july.(non cash)
Unfavourable currency movements could knock up to $300million from this but margins pretty much inline with second half of last year (high 15's) and a slight increase in GWP will mean only a smallish increase in FCF (guestimate $40-50 million) obviously could be affected by operating costs but probably not greatly(more likely to the upside because of cost cutting strategies).
My guess is divi's will stay the same first half and be increased yearend although only slightly.
This is also taking into consideration paying for renaisance re in cash.
I make no adjustments for bond yields as i don't expect much difference for a while yet, not until short dated bonds start getting smashed which is probably a while yet.