I get 45%X13.67%Xus$12X100,000 BOPD = Us$74,000 per day but only if oil is above US$70.
They have been producing for 100 days roughly = US $7.4m earned so far.
If they can maintain the rate of production and oil remains above US$70 it would take another 2 years to earn the full US$55m contingent payment.
Risks are;
- production rates fall off (likely) - oil goes below US$70 - Government in Senegal demands more - tax (hopefully they have usable tax losses) - drop dead date for the contingent payment July 27 (3 years from first sales) - Woodside plays hard ball and won't pay
So market cap at A$47m (@50.5c) re maximum payout of US$55m (A$82m) seems fair value at this stage.
FAR Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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