Very mixed reactions on here, and understandably so.
In my post Post #:75606678 I said my modelling needed something like 35% Q on Q growth to reach cash flow break even. (Only focussing on US as ROW are irrelevant).
We've got 28 today, which isn't a huge miss on that target, so I'm not too worried about that, as it's in the right direction. As always, next quarter will be very telling. I think 38+ is vital.
Despite the miss, I'm pretty positive today, much more than 3 months ago. A couple of observations from the presentation and the telephone call.
1. Leads. A few parts to this.
a) As I've said before I think 500 additional SOZO sales will get the company to breakeven. There are now leads on 585 machines, therefore a 90% conversion rate on existing leads will get to breakeven. Not hanging my hat on this but its a positive.
b) In the call PB said they had done a few quotes for 20+ machines, and the potential client is waiting for reimbursement in whichever state the quote was prepared for. So in a years time when reimbursement has naturally progressed, we could easily be landing sales for 20+ machines at a time.
c) Hard to forecast this, and I may be clutching at straws, but if we take a lead conversion rate on previous quarters, and use that percentage to forecast next quarterly sales, I think we could be looking at 35-40, which again just misses my breakeven targets above, but its in the right ballpark.
585 current leads x 6% conversion rate = 35 units
585 current leads x 7% conversion rate = 40 units
2. The future
Overall, I'm happy with todays announcement, I like the positivity in PB's voice, and forgetting the numbers for a moment the ten "reasons to invest" in IPD were a good reminder of why I'm here.
I'm confident this company will be a billion dollar company, the main unknown for me at the moment is how long that will take and how many shares on issue will there be when that happens.
Conclusion: I'm a buyer at 5.5 and below.
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