1. The feasibility study was originally due in Q2 2023 (see the 2023 half-yearly accounts), but now JZ is saying they're 'targeting' Q2 2025. These so-called 'targets' are laughable.
2. The engineering design and FEED for the 10 ktpa expansion was supposed to take 3-6 months. It’s been 15 months already, and they’ve just tacked on another 14 months. A timeline blowout of 400-500% is, unfortunately, right on brand.
3. How do they plan to make a FID with no cash and no clear funding pathway? It’s only a matter of time before that 'target' slips too.
4. Remember those voices insisting AGY didn’t need a feasibility study because they were supposedly following an unconventional approach? They claimed it was better to show partners their production capabilities instead. Now it seems that 'unconventional path' has been abandoned after trying to reinvent the wheel.
5. Construction by Q2 2025? With what cash?
6. Unsurprisingly, there's no mention of ATL being involved either.
I expected some form of window-dressing before the quarterly report, but I honestly thought it would be another spot market sale. This 'update' feels like a pretty weak effort. I suspect their cash burn isn’t looking good, and they’ve finally revealed who they’re contracting to in order to justify more spending.
A tip for the die-hards: keep an eye on the quarterly expenditure report next week and think hard about how they plan to reach FID without significant shareholder dilution in the near term.
AGY Price at posting:
3.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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