I'm certainly no expert on such matters, yesterday's announcement was somewhat vague in places, and I'm probably missing something important here, but ...
If I'm reading this correctly, the potential JV partner sees value in committing upto $US32.500,000 as required during refurbishment next year in return for a 51% stake in the Uley project. I have no idea how much of this funding will be required, but even if only half of it is called on, that's $US16,250,000 for their 51% stake - and that doesn't take into account what the North Americans may have to fork out annually (if anything) in interest on their investment funds.
If they are prepared to pay $16,250,000 for a 51% interest, they must be putting a minimum pre-profit value on 100% of the project at $31,862,745. It's hard to imagine they aren't looking to at very least double their money, so lets say they expect Uley to yield a profit of at least $63 million (and I suspect they expect much more).
There are currently 330,622,499 SER shares, so if that represents what would be the company's 49% interest in Uley, that means 100% would be the equivalent of 674,739,794 shares.
Divide the $63million profit by 674,739,794 and it comes out to more than 9c per SER share - without taking into account the 1.5% revenue royality on top of SER's 49% stake in the project; without taking into account the company's other potential, such as Cultana; and without taking into account that the North Americans are actually prepared (if required) to commit twice as much as I've allowed for in my calculations.
The JV agreement would guarantee that Uley is well funded and returns to production asap (and presumably without the need for further dilution of stock value through share offers). Any stock like SER is subject to the volatility caused by short-term profit-taking by traders (as we saw yesterday), but if you're thinking longer-term (and don't need your money in a hurry), why would you sell now at 7.3c?
Sunman
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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