"not much downside" other than the bottom immediately falling out of the share price and possibly another 2-3 years to get the rest of the money... sorry to be gloomy but I think everyone is sick of waiting. I am crossing my fingers and toes that this is just a blip and there will be an announcement Monday morning saying the cash is in. but I am concerned by the need for a trading halt at all which I would interpret that Tanzania have not even said that the money is on its way (or will be there on whatever date). If Tanzania are not even communicating then at what point do they call off the halt and announce that they're in default?
HOWEVER I am still optimistic about this. My gut is 30% that they paid over the weekend, 60% that it is late but the funds come in within a week ("the cheque is in the mail"), and 10% no payment. Reason for the optimism: if Tanzania deliberately default they are shooting themselves in the foot re other arbitrations, World Bank/WMF funding, credit rating etc.
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