sorry, page-20

Really didn't wish to get into this thread... 82% comes from 3rd para below, which was posted on the weekend. And let's just cool it guys.

What a perplexing week! SP dropped from a high of $1.09 to a low of 0.65 to finish at 0.725. We had profit taking exacerbated by the MEO factor, successful spud and news that an Asian hydrocarbons group took a position in the Advent book build. And importantly the media cavalry didn't turn up.

On paper a disappointing week except where it matters, 55 kms offshore Newcastle where so far so good and next week could be very different.

There is a lot of data to suggest this wildcat drill isn't as wild as most. The Sydney basin is proven to have abundant hydrocarbon resources while PEP 11 research, seismic data, shallow target all provide some reassurance that the odds are much higher than the common 20%, as much as 82% from one view: "Features such as these taken with geochemical indicators, according to international hydrocarbon migration expert and author Dietmar Schumacher, tend to increase the probability of discovering gas on a commercial scale to a reassuring 82 per cent."

A whiff of gas next week will spark interest from the media and market. The drill bit could well encounter the top section:

"RPS has reviewed each geological horizon in the seismic profile at the New Seaclem-1 proposed drilling site. It concludes that in sediments from 471 to 605 metres below sea level that gas is expected to be encountered, coincident with the Great White and Marlin prospects. The key conclusion is that geological horizons exist within these sediments that are 'highly likely' to contain gas due to the strength and variety of seismic attributes observed at those levels."

So risky yes, but we might just get a hint of how risky next week.

Best of luck all Peppies!