xanadu coal, page-34

@ slick

Thermal coal demand will rise from China and India in 2011 and beyond. The reasons for China not having enough coal is not due to the fact that their isn't enough, it's about supply BOTTLENECKS.

every article i read on the topic talks about "bottlenecks" in supply for coal. All the major thermal coal players have supply issues, whether rail or port. Australia, Indonesia, South Africa. Albanese (from RIO) spoke about supply contraints in Australia's shipping of coal to China and that it could lead to increased market share from Mongolia (and others) in late 2009 and threaten Australia's share of the pie. Well it's happened. Mongolia doubled their share of coal exports to China in 2010.

This doesn't apply so much to coking coal (we have a pretty tight grip there and ours is of the best quality) but moreso thermal coal. Australia and Indonesia supply most of the world's thermal coal, and South Africa is a player aswell. I read some literature that asserts China will supplant Japan as the world's largest thermal coal importer in 2011. The same article suggests India will supplant China by 2019. Seems to me if we have supply constraints across the board now, all the major exporters need to spend up to meet increasing demand. I don't think they will keep up. South Africa and Indonesia are more well placed to servcice India, but personally i see Mongolia as a future player in supplying China, South Korea and Japan with thermal coal.


There is much less logistical hurdles to getting coal from a country that is on your border once that country sorts out it's rail network. There is some 150 billion tonnes of coal to be developed in Mongolia. Eventually that won't just feed China, it will get seaborne aswell after 2014-2015 when the rail networks are done, and they can rail to Vladivostok = supply S Korea and Japan with a very short boat ride.

MONGOLIAN coal is the real deal!!!