XJO, Gold, MOY and others, page-12360

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Anonandon

3,527 Posts.

54

05/11/24

13:37

Post #: 76464988
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Originally posted by ktrianta: ↑

Gary's latest on X. My thoughts exactly. l have made excellent returns this past 4 months and am now happy to sit back and watch. Don’t get too greedy and be happy with your profits booked.

A couple more reasons why I'm nervous to keep chasing the metals rally (seriously, at some point you just have to control greed and say "I've made enough").

Most intermediate cycles run 20-25 weeks trough to trough. A short cycle is often followed by a stretched cycle. You can see the current cycle is now on week 19. That's very mature and remember there's usually 4-8 weeks for the declining phase of the cycle. How much further can it rally and still have time for the declining phase?

And note the insane stretch above the 200 week moving average. An experienced professional trader becomes more and more nervous the further price stretches away from the mean. The risk increases exponentially as this continues as the further price stretches the more violent the correction tends to be when the buying pressure dries up and the profit taking event begins. This is why bubbles crash.

Inexperienced novice traders are trading on emotions so they get more confident and greedy the longer price continues to rally and the further it stretches. These people are the cannon fodder that smart money hands the bag to at tops.

So could there still be a ballistic phase for silver after the election? Sure. But unless you time the top perfectly (if you think it was hard to sell now, it will be much harder during a ballistic phase) you will just give back all of those gains anyway when you hold on too long.

So ask yourself if you can be happy with the stellar gains you've made on this rally, or are you determined to play musical chairs 19 weeks into an intermediate rally, and maybe the last chair has already been pulled away and you can't see it.

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One thing I am not good at is large transactions which means both buying and selling is a gradual process for me. It is one area I need to work on.

Accordingly I've sold a fair chunk the last few days. Regardless of Gary's bedside manner I think he is right and you have to let go of your ego and act in your own self interest.

Having said that I just re-entered SBM at 34 c.
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