back of the envelope calculations, page-11

Ok feel better now:-) bit of un-edited doodling to add to the pot

Easiest way to get the EBITDA per ton I'm using for p/e projections is to just divide the 8.6mill for our share projected throughput which is 36000 tons (60% of the 60,000tpa) = $238/ton EBITDA.

Interesting the First RM broker report listed the two US Alcoa plants as 400,000 tpa and the SSC as 90,000 tpa but in totals for all three in the second report had 525 so they also think SSC is going to be larger - 135tpa.

They also projected 25 mill per plant capex

RM use some aggressive discounting method to make the SP targets sound more reasonable so best to run the numbers yourselves and then discount by what ever amount you want.

but basically $238/ton EBITDA

current exposure 36,000 tpa - although we will acquire the rest this year.

SSC plant 135000 tpa min with capex of 25 mill

Two US plants each for 200,000 tpa at 25 mill capex each.

I am expecting that by the end of 2011 we would have begun construction of 3 Us plants, with contracts and funding all sorted for a total of 525,000 tpa plus the 36000 tpa from Geelong gives 561000 tpa with costs to come of 75mill capex.

Targeting then 561000tpa x $238 p/ton= $133,500,000 pa less 30% tax = 93.5mill pa free-cashflows

Assuming a ridiculous conservative outcome and we just dilute to raise all that first plant at $1.20, second plant at $2, third plant at $2.50 then we need another 43 mill shares issued which is 173mill total by then and we will be returning 93mill after tax.

Conservative p/e is 15 for this industry on the above, will be higher but 15x 93mil = 1395mill divided by 173mill shares = $8 per share.

This is just what we have planned for 2011, and the wildcard is NMP which will double the profit per-ton (see my prev NMP post) so double the above.

We won't even need to build them to see the big gains, all we need is studies done, funding sorted, contracts in place and the market will go there minus a discount for whatever risks are current.

Then when we all are finished drooling over that in first qtr 2011 the ALCOA deal may suggest a worldwide partnership to process Alcoa's salt slag with projections of ? tpa and then in 2012 we will be discussing what Canada and Europe plants are going to yield in tonnages.

2013? we will just build our own Silica smelter and be done with it out of petty cash.