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22/11/24

23:24

Post #: 76741646
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Originally posted by ajk92: ↑

Here’s a different opinion from someone who sold after the previous Acadia update, not the most recent one.

the quarterly wasn’t that good, it only just met guidance. To me that indicates a substantial lack of growth in the drugs sales. An increase of only maybe $5M? A new drug should not be petering out in terms of growth that quickly.

I know some will also point to that 70% of retts patients have yet to be put on the drug. You need to ask the question why such a large portion of the market has gone untreated. Have they been advised that the side effects do not outweigh the benefits? Surely they know about it by now, so you can’t put it down to informational frictions.

the milestone payment should have been factored in already. Even though it’s big, if it’s priced in, it shouldn’t result in a big gain.

the PRV was good though, as even though the amount could roughly be anticipated, the timing couldn’t have been (hence bringing forward a cash flow increasing it’s time value component).

I think the market overreacted to the recent news, and then throw in some momentum components, the drop was always going to be sharp. A friend of mine asked whether NEU should be added to the portfolio, and I still said no as I believed the quarterly was weak.

long term though, it should be a buy based on 2591. Picking the entry is a tough decision though as it locks up capital for a long time

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My tweak to your argument is that Acadia stuffed up guidance and overshot which has caused all this drama. Working in corporate the first thing I learned was under promise and over deliver.

NEU Price at posting: $12.36 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $17.60		Change 0.590(3.47%)		Mkt cap ! $2.222B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$17.48	$18.44	$17.40	$13.13M	735.0K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
9	601	$17.60

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$17.61	539	7

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	38	17.620
3	35	17.610
10	951	17.600
6	6167	17.590
5	990	17.580

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.630	434	4
17.640	103	1
17.650	499	7
17.660	1326	7
17.670	954	6

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