Well to be honest it's both complex an simple at the same time I myself have spoken with Kerry the MD of ARD twice both times for 10-20min once before bullant buy and the other on takeover attempt from USN
-simple view- What I gather on my research an phone conversations is ARD have a large resource-kempfield- worth many hundreds millions that is OPEN IN ALL DIRECTIONS the individual grades aren't spectactly but the resource as a whole is very good it's shallow an in a great location Kerry believe the costs needed to see ARD into production are pretty low an if ARDO are well exercised (looks likely on re-price lower)ARD shouldn't need to dilute Shareholder futher.
-more complex parts-ARD's control of kempfield pretty much granted it will be annouced 70% soon..but whats the go going forward on the other 30% My understanding from talking with kerry who also works with GCR is that if GCR doesn't want to front with 30% J.V funds needed for DFS JORC PLANT etc ARD will gain futher control... also the whole USN--ARD issue the demerge of the bullant asset..
So IMHO ARD will not command a respectable SP till the more complex issues are fixed which will be soon so there is risk...but wait till march and ARD could well be 40c on the back of a resource upgrade 90%+ control +free USN shares
ARD Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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