To that point: Cuba imports more than twice what it exports in oil each year (ref: OEC), and has a low reliance on renewables (circa 5% at present). Oil reserves (sans Melbana) are estimated at 1.3 billion barrels. Block 9 can potentially increase that by 676 million barrels (estimate). API levels vary betyween 19 and 22 API. Cuba's Northern Oil Belt has lower API of between 8% and 15%. Melbana's production from Unit 1B, where peak flow rates were evidenced at 1,900 bopd and stabilised average of 1,240 via A2 prior to shut-in. Clearly, Block 9 is highly significant to CUPET.
The 2009 nationalisation of the Canasi, Seboruco and Santa Cruz fields (managed by Perbercan Inc under a production sharing agreement with CUPET) took place when production was 18,245 barrels per day with all the oil being sold to the Cuban government. At its peak, Canasi's output was around 30k bopd with an API of 19. Time has come for Cuba to replace these fields, which does beg the question: at what point will CUPET make a similar offer to Melbana? At a guess, the 7 wells of Unit 1B, added to resolved A2, would have a combined output of between 10k and 20k bopd (an average of 1,875 bopd, perhaps higher). Given the recent power outages, will this be enough - come the end of 2025 - for CUPET to place an offer on the table for Melbana's share?
MAY Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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