The more I learn about the nation rebuilding in Sierra Leone, the more confidence it gives me.
Of course, like many people, I had my reservations about the political risks there when CFE first announced the investment. The name Sierra Leone was asscoated with the civil war, blood diamonds and the movie with Leonardo Dicaprio. But there a number of things that lessen the risk for CFE, even compared with companies like Sundance:
- CFE is diversified, and has a number of other assets besides Marampa. This lessens the risk compared with single-mine developers/operators.
- Even if tomorrow, the government siezed control of Marampa, the value of the other assets CFE has is greater than its mcap. (That would still mean the sp would drop, however)
- CFE's business model is not one of mining and large capital investment in mining. They get in, add value, and sell out. As such, their sovereign risk is less because their capital investment is less, and their time with the investment is less. There is a huge difference in risk between companies who build and operate bulk commodity mines, and those who find and develop them.
- And in regard to Sierra Leone, their sovereign risk had improved greatly in the last 5 or so years. CFE has taken advantage of that, and is ahead of the market. Others' prejudices kept the assets prices down, which CFE benefited from.
I really implore people to read up on the current Government in Sierra Leone. They are building their country back up, and showing a great deal of wisdom with the 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission'. Sierra Leone are also being a positive force for change in relation to some of their troubled neighbours, such as in Cote D'ivoire.
CFE's risks are spread, across commodities, and across geography. They are finite in terms of time. And they are well and truly factored into the share price, and then some.
Yaq
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