ASX Large Caps. Weekly Wrap - week ended 29/11/24.
Large Caps ETF Weekly Chart.
ILC (an ETF for the 20 Leaders) was up a tepid +0.15% for the week. XTL was up just +0.1%. That compares to the XJO (ASX200) up +0.51%. Large Caps clearly underperformed the major broad market index XJO.
So, what's going on?
The major problem for the Twenty Leaders was the performance of the big four banks.
- CBA -0.28%
- ANZ -3.38%
- NAB -2.43%
- Westpac -1.39%.
The four big banks make up four out of the top six stocks on the ASX. CBA is No.2: ANZ, NAB and WBC are Numbers 4, 5 and 6.
(No.1 is BHP, No.3 is CSL).
As the XTL (and XJO) is a cap-weighted index, underperformance of the big four banks will weigh heavily on the Large Cap Index.
20 Leaders individual stock performances.
Eight out of 20 stocks were negative this week. Two out of three of the worst performers were big banks, ANZ and NAB. Splitting those two as second worst performer was S32 which had an outsized gain the previous week.
Best four performing stocks were a mixed bag:
- Scentre Group +3.95% (Property)
- IAG +3.77% (Financials)
- AMC +2.8 (Industrials)
- BHP +2.47% (Materials)
Price Projection for 20 Leaders.
ILC is currently at $32.35. Using a Fibonacci Price Projection from the ABC points on the above graph, we get the following projections:
- 100%: $34.16
- 50-61.8% Zone: $32.60 - $32.96
- Ground Zero - $30.99
Which of those projections appears most likely?
ILC has already reached the 50-61.8 Zone and has experienced some resistance at the lower 50% level of that zone.
Given that resistance, and negative divergences on the MACD Histogram, Force Index and Stochastic, a pull-back to Ground Zero looks possible, i.e., back to $30.99. That would represent a fall of about -4%.
A less pessimistic pull-back would be the high of 21/10/24 at $32.13 which might prove a strong horizontal support level.
If, against the odds, ILC does push up through the 50-61.8 zone, then we're looking at a target of 34.16, a rise of about +5.6%, but I''m not hopeful
I would, however, be happy to eat crow.
(20min delay)