Ava have margins of ~60% and fixed costs of ~$24m per annum (based on 2H24).....so with a gross profit of ~$21m (on that $35m revenue you estimate), they will lose ~$3m before tax......they don't have the cash to sustain that.
What they will have to do in Feb with the release of 1H24 results (which based on 17m revenues is likely to be a profit before tax loss of ~2m), is to provide a forecast for FY2025 and withdraw that aspirational targets they keep on communicating but have no ability to deliver given they cannot determine exactly when clients (with potentially big contracts like Telstra) will sign on the dotted line.
Even if you say there is the chance of a large contract, I'm just not sure delivering another 2 half yearly losses (to add to the losses in 2H23, 1H24, 2H24) is going to make anyone pay more than they are for this company (in fact its not worth $37m if they continue to book losses & try to sell small contract wins)
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