When RIV was $1, I wanted $4; when $5, I wanted $9; when $12, I wanted $15...now it's $17, I want $20, on and on it goes; we will always fell short changed.
I know a great deal about Mozambique; have friends involved with VALE there(I live in Brazil). I have lived in developing countries for a long time. The fact is, is that the coal resources that RIV have are just overwhelming in terms of what has to be developed by way of infra. The project is just too big....power stations, water treatment plants and housing, ports, railways, industrial complexes. It is a huge, huge undertaking. I will take the offer and by RIO shares (if they are successful). I obviously hope there is a second bidder. I have over 80% of my portfolio on RIV, and have so for 5 years.
Passport has been in this since the early days and have put 50% of their s'holding into the RIO bid; they know exactly what RIV has, and the hurdles to production.
The valuation above of $135 is kindergarten stuff, with no concern of just how much money will be needed to reach 20m tonnes, nor how many share will need to be issued to raise capital. That sort of stuff ticks me off.
Just one point to consider...the only railway line (some 400kms to port) only has capacity for about 7m tonnes per ann. VALE want +5m tonnes of this, leaving RIV + others 2/3m tonnes. So if the barging is not an option, RIV will never reach 20m tonnes; and as we know coal in the ground is worth zilch.
As to the RIO T/O; if some of the major s'holdes don't support the bid, RIO may only have a possible pool of 60 - 70% of the available shares to bid into. To reach their 50% bid condition, RIO will need 80-90% of that pool to be successful - no small ask!!! If unsuccessful, watch the sp drop to $12 (if your lucky!!).
It ain?t all beer and skittles.
Cheers, Skip
RIV Price at posting:
$17.03 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
