Quick recap: Rox now has Hawke’s Point approved new management and is cashed up for the run-up to the DFS. Insiders are loaded so the brakes are off the share price.
From February next year, we will see positive drilling reports from high-confidence targets, and there could be a major discovery.
The updated MRE, due around April next year, would normally not light up the share price because it doesn’t tell us how much gold will be in the Mining Plan.
However, the Step-Up Drill Plan is strictly targeting new indicated gold that is profitable to mine, so the MRE will have a high conversion rate to the Reserve.
That makes the MRE a market mover.
The DFS, due around October is, of course, a major milestone next year.
It will tell us the Reserve, which I expect will be well over 1m ozs. The assumed gold price should be over $3,500 oz.
Rox peer, Santana Minerals Limited (ASX: SMI) has a PFS-assumed gold price of $4,075).
The Rox DFS will have exceptional metrics.
FID will follow quickly.
Hawke’s Point will move to 30% ownership (imo), so there will be some dilution.
Finance to build the mine will be a formality.
There are many moving parts, but the Step-Up Drill Plan may bring milestones forward.
Early 2025 drilling has been brought forward to 2024,
The ramp-up of rigs to at least 4 will be happening much quicker.
The Rox team is moving very fast to advance the project.
The first gold pour could be in Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027.
With early access mining from Q2, 2025, production will be a lot higher in year 1 of the LOM than in the PFS.
Santana and Rox are tracking side by side but Rox has no regulatory hurdles and WA is a much superior mining domain than NZ.
Rox also has a more experienced, higher-calibre team and is supported by Hawke's Point.
Rox will get into production before Santata imo.
SMI has a bigger resource (that could change) and a market valuation of over $300m
That’s more than 3 x RXL at less than $100m.
Depending on the price of gold, and the drilling outcomes, Rox will re-rate to a market valuation of at least $200m in 2025, imo.
That’s about 40 cps.
18,856,665 options @ 25 cps, many held by retail, will likely be executed well before their expiry in Nov 2025,
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