State ofPlay:
Current Share price: 3.5 cents
Shares on issue: 211,181,655
Market capital: $7.64 million
24 monthProjections:
Share price: 80 cents
Shares on issue: 250,000,000
Market capital: $200 million
Things toLike:
1.Heroic social narrative
2.2 trials fully funded to end of Phase II
3.Low market capital & low shares on issue
4.Closing in on start of news flow
5.Powerful tailwinds
6.Very high chance of FDA approval
What’smissing?1.A fund
2.Liquidity
3.Promotion
The company has 2 shots on goal, cancer pain and high anxiety. In particular, the destruction caused by fentanyl has set IRX 211 up with an 'overcoming the monster' type narrative that is ripe for the pickings. Indeed, this narrative has no less than 2 of themost powerful tailwinds on planet Earth behind it: Trump and the FDA.Firstly, fentanyl is at the top of Trump’s list of problems in America. He has threatened 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports if they don’t crack down on illegal fentanyl exports.
Secondly, the FDA (our gatekeeper), likewise, are determined to make it hard for physicians to prescribe fentanyl with prohibitive red tape; namely a riskevaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) that makes it a ball ache and financially risky for doctors to keep prescribing this highly addictive and deadly drug. Manufacturers are dropping out.TransmucosalImmediate-Release Fentanyl (TIRF) Medicines | FDA
The exciting thing is for IRX 211 to achieve FDA approval, it needs to show it is both safe and can ease pain by just 1 point above the placebo on the SPID-30 scale. That’s right, just 1 single point. The probability of IRX 211 showing at least a 1-point pain improvement is almost a certainty based on hundreds of years and millionsof cases of anecdotal evidence.
Most of all, the FDA is in desperate need of an alternative solution to the monster that fentanyl has become. The timing for IRX 211’s fast-acting, anywhere/anytime, smokeless solution could not be more perfect.
I have set a very achievable value for each clinical asset to the tune of AUD$100 million for a total market capital of AUD$200 million and a share price of 80 cents. This may prove to be very conservative for 2 completed phase II trials with open INDs with the FDA.
Recently, the company secured funding to complete both Phase II trials. This is the game-changer. It is not one of those woodshed con-notes that obliterate the share price and dilute shareholders to the buggery, but a long-dated loan that is reliant onthe trial(s) being successful to have any chance of being paid pack. The lenders must be extremely confident or they will be left holding the bag.
The next round of business is to receive tenders for the expanded trials. Once complete,the fully funded phase II trial for IRX 211 and phase I & II trials for IRX616a are thunderbirds ready to go. This should mark the start of news flow duringquarter 1 next year.The shareprice is currently at 3.5 cents and 5 cents is the breakout point. If breakout onvolume occurs, traders will likely enter the picture to give the share price afurther nudge. This is where the aerodynamics of the low SOI should come intoplay to push it higher and get that perfect triangle buzzing: a rising shareprice, momentum, and regular news flow.
The hidden ace is because the solution is for cancer sufferers, there is a decent chance that IRX 211 will only need a single pivotal study to be granted FDA approval like some fentanyl solutions received. This would shave off millions of dollars in costs and save years of time making it an even juicier takeover target for American companies.
There are plenty of companies that are fully priced based on their potential, so unsurprisingly the share price falls off a cliff as news dries up and the hype evaporates. There is no cliff to fall off here. We are on the ground looking up at massive potential upside. With powerful tailwinds and a long-funded runway, the current share price is a very attractive entry point.
The share price in an unknown stock is often the final piece to take off.
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Last
4.0¢ |
Change
0.005(14.3%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.537M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.9¢ | 4.4¢ | 3.9¢ | $22.38K | 531.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 215549 | 3.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.4¢ | 10600 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 215549 | 0.035 |
1 | 200000 | 0.032 |
1 | 100000 | 0.030 |
1 | 50000 | 0.028 |
1 | 18900 | 0.027 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.044 | 10600 | 1 |
0.048 | 200000 | 1 |
0.049 | 43500 | 1 |
0.050 | 57982 | 1 |
0.055 | 114186 | 1 |
Last trade - 14.36pm 16/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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