Only the Charts, page-251

I appreciate that you've taken the time to make an indepth post about the reasoning behind your "Sell" view, even if I completely disagree.

Here is a brief summary of why I disagree:
1. Zip is trending upwards over the last 12 months - I don't believe you can say Zip is now a downtrend just because it is lower than early December - that is too short of a period during a volatile period, and has basically gone down just like the rest of the market during this period. Just look at the VAS asx over the past month to see the similarity to Zip.
2. Zip is vastly undervalued compared to its peers (Sezzle and Affirm). Sezzle is also up 1300% in the last 12 months so I hardly think you can call a 22% drop a collapse while ignoring the massive run up.
3. Larry has been involved in the company for many years and the company is entering a new stage, and it is understandable that he wants to move on with other things in his life and move back home to Australia etc. I don't think this is a point of concern at all, and he didn't sell his entire holding either. Nothing wrong with him locking in some gains, and he definitely hasn't locked them in at the top - Zip will go much higher than $3.50 over the next 12 months.
4. Independent reports indicate that BNPL is becoming more and more popular, and is showing huge growth over the next 5 years in the sector as consumer habits change.
5. Inflation is settling down, and interest rates are going down. This reduces Zip's funding costs (which increases profitability), and strengthens the consumer (more spending and less bad debts).
6. Zip is focusing more on marketing and customer growth now that they are cash flow positive and a profitable company - they have shown they can survive the harsh macroeconomic environment (high interest rates etc) over the past few years, and now things have turned and the environment is becoming one in which they can thrive.
7. Expanding more on the above, the US is a huge market with minimal BNPL penetration ensuring there is ample growth available. Zip's US growth has been phenomenal, and their leadership team has been fantastic and Cynthia Scott has forecasted that they will continue to grow extremely well in the US over the next 12 months (30%+ growth).
8. Zip has new products that have been proven to increase revenue/profits and still being rolled out. The continued roll out of these products will keep increasing the profitability/growth etc for at least 12-24 months (e.g. physical card in the US, pay in 8 in the US, Zip Plus in Aus).
9. Zip has also looked at adding other products to diversify their revenue stream, add additional revenue etc, without costing much - for example referral bonuses to brokers/banks for home loans, personal loans etc.
10. Weak Aussie dollar will help the company further as well - all the US revenue will be convered to Aussie revenue at a more favourable rate. In addition, a weak AUD makes the company much more attractive for potential US buyers.

I see barely any downsides, so I think it's completely incorrect to say the downside risk is higher than the upside risk. It is pretty much all upside over the next 12 months and I'll be surprised if Zip is less than $5 by end of 2025.