Hey @fuhc46, here's a basic little comparison table I've had going with RNU's MOU partners:
For me, it's looking like a two-horse race between POSCO and Mitsubishi, though we won't hear the team say that.
The Chinese will face 25% or greater tariffs from 2026 in the US, and will not qualify for the increasingly stringent domestic/FTA battery component % of value requirement under the IRA's 30D provisions. They've/ll probably offer low ball pricing to DC and the board as a result.
Hanwa (not to be confused with the SK conglomerate Hanwha) are a trading company, or in my mind, middlemen.
Whilst they would not encounter the issues of MNM or Zeto, they will want their own handling cut, which should price them slightly worse than POSCO or Mitsubishi. Haven't the manufacturing experience of the remaining two.
POSCO. Have said a qualified yes to half the RNU Christmas PSG cake (burp!). No to crumbs. Yes to strategic cooperation. Supported the application for the PSG demo plant grant application. Dunno about South Korea at the moment though, seems to be in a bit of a pickle politically, and unsure whether that stymies industry assistance for a while.
Mitsubishi are playing their cards close. Unstated offtake quantity. Yes to crumbs/concentrates. Yes to strategic cooperation. Much needed natural graphite boost with their recent upgrade to their product's performance (thanks @Herm1979), utilising new proprietary technology to develop a grade that exceeds the performance of synthetic graphite by constraining swelling that affects battery life (did they use Siviour concentrate product?).
The BAM study had the 50ktpa build at around $400M, or $8M/1,000 tpa. So I'd expect the demo plant to be around the kiloton size. They're quantities to assist MOU partners in qualification and maybe some spot, but it is a pretty specialised product. It would be more expensive to produce than at full Stage 1 or 2 capacity, but say they break even, it's money well spent. IG6 say their pilot scale operation has been instrumental in optimising equipment selection, vendor assessment, operatingconditions and scaling of Stage 1 production capacity to achieve lower unit capital costs than wasenvisaged in the original 2023 feasibility study. The same may well happen for RNU, helping us edge further left on the cost curve.
Western governments have said they are looking to create an alternative critical minerals supply chain. But they move at such an awfully slow pace that:
- The US supply chain participants have had to file a petition against Chinese unfair graphite dumping practices to get their attention.
- Australia's National Reconstruction Fund (remember that?) with a $15B piggybank in total and at least $1B allocated to value add critical mineral projects announced its board in August 2023. They didn't allocate any funding until 15 months later, in late Nov24, and to date have spent just $100M all up. Where's the urgency for Pete's sake?
The White House's Jake Sullivan is highly regarded and hopefully will get his baby over the line before #47 takes office. This is a good read and would provide sustained tailwinds for the whole Oz battery metals sector if it gets off the ground (remove asterisks):https://www.s*m*h.com.au/politics/federal/us-national-security-adviser-reveals-new-plan-for-australia-to-help-curb-chinese-dominance-20240906-p5k8hq.html
Australia, Japan and South Korea are all part of this proposed minerals alliance.
RNU's long engagement with government mirrors this strategy uncannily.
Here's to 2025 seeing all the Siviour-Bolivar jigsaw pieces fall into their carefully crafted place.
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