LYC lynas rare earths limited

Interesting, page-817

  1. 8,519 Posts.
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    A very interesting statement in the article and like most things from Simply Wall Street no back up at all/
    Earnings are forecast to grow 43.64% per year

    I strongly disagree for two reasons. Revenue will probably be down. The only thing that will cause it to rise is AL changes her stance on not selling at low prices. If she does this the revenue will go up but so will expenses. Currently they are making very little per ton.
    Expenses will grow dramatically. Because as the parts of the 2019 plan for 2025 Start up, Testing and proving will no longer go under CAP X but become expenses. Also things like the AUD 800 M in Cap X spent on KAL now has to be written down. I will use 20 years but it is far more likely to be 15 ~ 18 years because many things are written down over much shorter periods than the plant itself. $800 M / 20 is $40M a year more than 50% of all of 2024 profit of $72M See page 61 2024 AR. Profit per ton of NdPrO is $72M . 5,655 or AUD 12 per KG. If you prefer we can use total REEO 72M / 10,908 for $6.60 Per KG. Even an instantaneous jump to 10,5 Kg NdPrO on Jan 1 2025 would only add 4.5 KG / 2 X $12.00 =$27M which is a longs ways from 46%. A lot less than the write downs on KAL CAP X

    Post all you want about what People Like SWS predict but I will continue to publish what I see as obvious errors. For thinking people to see the whole story.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6704/6704312-c8877878b0c804edf9894a567942e283.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6704/6704328-827e7086d7e89c9bee010db4c561c084.jpg

 
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