Ann: Change in substantial holding - Phillip Asset Management, page-3

Hard to say - I guess Cynata is still very small and somewhat illiquid, so it's hard for funds to take a position when an exit strategy may be difficult.

It's interesting that since the CR, we have traded about 11.5M shares - approx 26% of the 44.4M issued. Assuming all of these sales were CR participants, I think it is a good result that at least 74% are still prepared to hold and not accept a quick 30% profit in 3 weeks.

This is the first time since 2018 that the CYP share price has finished a calendar year higher than the beginning price. Unbelievable, but true.

2024 also saw the first clinical trial readout since 2018 - the P1 Diabetic Foot Ulcer trial. The year after the 2018 GvHD results, CYP received a $2/share takeover bid. Given MSC's are now finally FDA approved, could we see a repeat in 2025?

There are a number of exciting known catalysts on the horizon:

P1/2 Renal Transplant Results: H1 2025 (Cohort A)
P1/2 Renal Transplant Results: H2 2025 (Cohort B)
P2 HR-aGvHD Results: Late 2025 (or early 2026)
P3 Knee OA Results: March-April 2026

Then there are the unknown catalysts:

DFU Commercial Licensing Deal: 2025 (US$9.6Bn p.a. market size)
Renal Transplant Licensing Deal: Late 2025/2026 (US$5.9Bn p.a. market size)
GvHD Commercial Licensing Deal: H2 2026 (US$600M p.a. market size, potential upfront + milestone payments north of US$75M)
Knee OA Commercial Licensing Deal: H2 2026 (US$11.6Bn p.a. market size)
Takeover offer
Preclinical indications brought into the clinic via government/tertiary funding

Note the size of the GvHD market and the upfront+milestone payments, then compare with the market size of DFU, Renal and Knee OA. What would be payable for a commercial deal for any of them?

Happily holding here while the market cap is sub US$100M.