CREV-2025

Happy New Year, everyone!

2025 will likely be the most critical year for CREV. With the new $25M funding from OIC (and possibly $40M later), CREV should be able to survive until June-August. This means that a resolution for CREV will undoubtedly emerge in the first half of this year. I believe there are four possible outcomes:

1. Securing new loans from creditors (5% probability)
Currently, CREV’s debt has far exceeded its net assets, making the likelihood of securing new loans negligible.

2. Obtaining another grant from OIC (10% probability)
In my opinion, this is unlikely. OIC is unlikely to continue injecting unlimited funds into CREV in exchange for warrants. They’ve already invested $110M, acquiring roughly 30% of the warrants, which are essentially worthless while CREV's share price remains low.

3. Successfully raising capital (45% probability)
CREV has limited options, and capital raising is one of the few viable ways to save the company. However, this is far from easy. They need to push their share price to at least $100–$110, corresponding to a market cap of around $200M. This would allow them to conduct a 20%-25% capital raise, securing funds for the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026.

Potential strategies to boost the share price include:

• Reporting a year-on-year revenue growth of over 100% in the FY2024 annual report.
• Providing an optimistic outlook for 2025-2026.
• Announcing or launching new programs, such as the electric version of the Range Rover, Lamborghini, or deals with new OEMs (e.g., Asian companies like BYD, Hyundai or Xiaomi).

These developments could potentially drive the share price above $100. (Maybe)

4. Delisting (40% probability)
Given CREV's current production levels, it is impossible for them to achieve profitability in the first half of 2025. This means that if they fail to secure new financing by June, bankruptcy will be inevitable.

So, which outcome do you think is most likely?