Will 2025 bring back the Lithium stocks?.
Happy New Year to everyone. I was away for couple of weeks. Was hoping to see some change, but looks like another waiting game.
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A very forgettable year of WC8 and nearly all Lithium stocks. I have last 2 years numbers below. Not a happy look, unfortunately, but better to know than ignore.
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For the year 2024, WC8 lost around 60%. Average loss across 90 stocks was 43%. So on average, stocks lost at least half of their value (considering some were in green).
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This was third year in a row where most Li stocks had to face market wrath. In 2023, WC8 gained 2796%, Yes, nearly 3000%. Not only it was start Li performer, but start ASX performer. But this year it fell to Li macro and is in its strangerhold for the whole year.
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So based on probability one would think that this year could be the turning point. I can't fathom another year of such big losses. Its possible, but one would think this year we could either stabilise or reverse. We need Li macro including spot price to be favourable as well. There is so much accumulated losses that when it reverses, the gains could be massive. But there is an if. Lets hope it plays out that way.
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WC8 needs something to happen. I am not sure what that could be. Some finance, offtake, takeover, etc. Otherwise it may remain dependent on macro.
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So what may happen next week? Another turmoil happening. In last one month Ganfeng has lost 20%, ALB as lost 20%, LTR has lost 20%. So there is a trend. We were all hoping that early September was the low. It looked for a while, but ASX Li stocks, which have been weakest, have broken below September lows.
.- Ganfeng after reaching 45, it was crucial to hold 37 level (50% up from it slows). Once it lost, it was probable that it may reach 30 (20% from its lows). It has reached 33, so it could happen. if it happens, next question would be whether it will hold or not. Its September low is 25.
- ALB after reaching 113, has lost 2 support levels, 104 and 92/94. I had written earlier that if 92/94 does not hold, it could reach 80. Its reached around 85, so it can happen. Same question, whether 80 will hold or not. Its September low is 72.
- LTR after reaching 95, has reached around 51. So again big test coming up.
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Best case scenario is that stocks hold, consolidate and then reverse from here. Lets hope it plays out that way.
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WC8 has been playing in 20s for around 6 weeks. In September it went to 18.5. In current lows, it reached 19. Higher low? It wants to run. As I have written many times, WC8 is hot and cold stock. If things looks slightly better, it gets excited and goes for a run. If things are not looking great, maybe macro, loses everything. Sometimes more than others. But currently on a run. I liked the run. But I don't like macro - Ganfeng/ALB, had a good play. Hopefully a much stronger one towards 40 for most.
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Here are the numbers for last 2 years -
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(20min delay)