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ZIP zip co limited..

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$2.91

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Cheeky-Charm

4,877 Posts.

558

09/01/25

13:17

Post #: 77333188
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Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm: ↑

ZIP Longs have had a lovely 1,000%+ gain and now I believe the stock has shown many signs that it's needing a significant cool-down. Will share my thoughts below. Sentiment will be made apparent on why I have it as a SELL as it has already gone to thesis as I will outline

I first made a SELL alert on ZIP on 9th December days away after the Top became clearly evident. Attached was the thesis made back then, to help build a timeline to where prices are currently at I was targeting $2.40 as a place to watch. Technicals aswell as a fundamental factor of Insider selling $100M of stock was a decent catalyst to add pressure to share price.

Further on, I made a more detailed chart analysing several indicators such as the RSI & OBV along with the good old basics, support, resistance, price and volume analysis

After a steep uptrend, prices formed what appears to be a left shoulder, spiking to a new high, retracing and then double topping before selling down and popping back up briefly to show signs of a right shoulder forming we have some signs of a head and shoulders playing out.

More bearish signals show OBV having a steep decline, suggesting this sell down on volume is confirming the direction, not to mention RSI has been flagging several blinkers and now after the double top, showed a clear divergence.

The Fibonacci (nowhere near an expert, a real beginner infact) shows a Golden Pocket zone of 0.382 to 0.618 ranging between $2.77 to $2.31. These prices are not far off the 150 EMA with 200 EMA at $1.58. Provided this is ending the downtrend and beginning the distribution phase, we could end up in panic selling. $2.86 is a vital level and could be considered our "neckline". A breach of that could put targets of $2.16 using the top of the double top, and duplicating that below the neckline.

Downside risks seem far larger than the upside now as I suspect any upticks and spikes will be shorted and sold into by longs and shorts adding collective seller pressure.

Attached lastly will be the 15min chart showing some zones. There is a gap upto $3.12, and today's move up has created another gap now at $2.91I can presume many market participants from short term to long term are taking advantage of the ZIP volatility, for me however I wouldn't be playing the long side on this anymore as I feel the risks are far larger now.

Since ZIP also has an emphasis on the U.S Markets, I should state that a former BNPL company called Sezzle once listed on the ASX under the symbol SZL was a PumpNDump here on the ASX. It has been listed on the U.S Exchange and after having a stellar Pump far greater than what ASX saw, it's now heavily in the Dump stage. Whatever happens in the States eventually catches on and I think this could have ramifications on ZIP in the near future.

Here was an article, A juicy read!https://tokenist.com/sezzle-sezl-stock-plummets-after-hidenburg-announces-short-position/ that had a Shortselling Firm do research which caused a -22% collapse in the share price in 1 day, the largest sell-down since it's run up. I think these things all point towards a larger macro event that's cloaked between ZIP's good financials and hyped press releases about history making changes etc etc. Good luck to all holders. Geez and the CEO for locking in $100M at the top? What are they holding back I wonder? To suppress the Retail Panic sell as instos and other funds sell longs and take the reverse

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ZIP tracking 100% to the thesis made back in 9th December for ZIP being a sell signal.

Many are considering 7th January to be potentially new Lower Highs

Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm: ↑

Morning @nakervirus by the time I could hit the post though it's now afternoon you do make some valid points, some seem more speculative than others nonetheless I suppose price action and the chart will be telling us many things that the news is not yet showing (due to them holding it back).

P.S to dispel point 2 where you mentioned "I hardly think you can call a 22% drop a collapse while ignoring the massive run up."

I prefaced my post beginning with the very mention about the massive run ups! On Both ZIP at the very start, likewise with SEZL (the only thing I forgot was attaching the Daily Chart of SEZL). So I am not sure what you mean about me ignoring the run ups, nothing has been left out in my post as there is no bias. Longs got credit and now the shortsellers turn to reign supreme I think
This was nice to hear, it's been a while since open discussions have taken place without one party attacking and defaming the other, glad to hear you enjoyed both views @Ollie3039
Cheers!
Bullish posts always get far more likes for example the latest thesis I posted regarding BRN and a Short Squeeze to the Long side I think has been the most I ever received LOL. I have used the exact same approach in REVERSE for ZIP. Where my bearish posts always receive 90% less engagement in feedback but a 100% more increase in abuse LOL

Here's how BRN has been playing out so far, seemingly everyone at 40c now thinks what I was thinking at the low 20's lol prices are currently at 40c still with retailers going long at these levels.

Onto the Actual ZIP update, this is NOT a good look for the stock at all! Especially for the Longs
We can see a major topping wick into all the overhead resistance. Almost like a shooting star. I was mentioning in my first ZIP post that there's Gaps all the way upto $3.12 and wasn't sure if $2.91 visits first or the $3 areas,. We can now see it has done it's best to try close the gap and is being met with seller pressure

Monthly Chart shows 1st Red Month pattern being played out. The last time ZIP saw a Red Month, was back in April 2024 hitting a high of $1.435, followed by a 2nd Red Month, with the low being $1.12, a pullback of -21.90% At the moment ZIP is down around -15% off its highs and went as low as nearly -22%The key differences are, the last drop was when prices were in an uptrend. This drop has been what could be at the top, or an ending trend and so -22% could be doubled to -44% which puts it at the 150 EMA's at $2.50

Once again for me personally, there are far more downsides than there is upside.Guess it's too early to tell either way nonetheless all the best holders and I won't be interested in trying longs until perhaps $2.50

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Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm: ↑

Thank you @Tradinator I have made my detailed posts here for a few years and plan on continuing to share findings.

I have not posted much on Twitter due to the limited characters but would like to put more content out there moving forward.

So far Hotcopper has been a good place as I make many of my posts from a larger term macro outlook, whilst trading for the short term low hanging profits

Looking forward to making more friendships and connections, sharing ideas and making some profits together

ZIP has had an interesting pattern from the lows..1 day red, next day green. 1 day red, next day green We are currently on a Red Day. Do I think tomorrow goes green? It could but I don't think so. Currently we are at the upper end of former resistance zones showing a wick into the supply, and we are due to end this pattern and go into a 2nd Red Day all in my opinion ofcourse my opinion could be wrong.

My timing on 6th December was good for a sell, I am patiently waiting for the breach below $2.80's, By that stage, it'll be clear to everyone. They aren't demolishing it in 1 day like a bad penny stock. Nonetheless, that monthly chart is more cause for concern than smaller time frames so we will need to report sometime in January when markets are back to normal liquidity

Tomorrow is half a trading day, closing 2.10pm so I suspect half of todays volume, say 3.25M or so. 991,000 shares shorted on 27th December probably covered for some profits today, unsure how many new shorts have added today?
In other words from todays just under 6.7M shares, nearly 1M shares were just from buy to covers. We cant tell how many are shorters, and how many are genuine longs, I'd say less than 50% of todays volume is from genuine longs. Far too dangerous for me to mix in with this sort of crowd. I will step out of the way, let the sellers initiate control and see where things can dust off. There will be counter trend longs due to the nature of shortsellers but only for the active and brave with screen time

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Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm: ↑

EDIT: As can be seen by my time stamped posts by the time I can even get my real time alerts out, ZIP is being dumped and could fill $2.91 gap today Thank you @nakervirus last day of the year can't believe how fast time flies! Hope you have had a great year and ending it off with a blast!

Forecasting ZIP to be well past $3.50 by end of 2025 is speculative in nature, which is fine the main thing is we all need a plan relative to our risk tolerance. There were afew things I disagreed in the post and comes off unactual or misleading, such as labelling ZIP as profitable, nonetheless I found your post interesting in the contrast between opinions, and you have done a decent job in laying out the thesis on potential attractive points particularly displaying the swings in prices from the lows back to the highs

All things factored and considered, I still think downside risk outweighs any short term upside.

ZIP - 18th December (Wednesday) was a strong green day, closing at the highs. For such a great candle, for such a bullish stock why has someone loaded a multi million dollar short position on such a strong day?

Many reasons. Whoever the seller(s) are, have clearly been defending their position, and Retail Longs are happily standing in the way providing the liquidity for instos and funds to take the reverse trade as they exit out of longs, following the wise move of Larry Diamond

I won't suggest or explain the importance of technical analysis, but a new year brings new skills, new mindsets, new perspectives and I certainly will be looking to sharpen my already existing sharp skills and completely ignoring and disregarding my weaknesses, I won't indulge in them. Such as trying to predict longer term prices ie 12 months from now. My system allows me to pick medium to longer term moves however I trade around short term time frames, and when prices on a chart need adjusting or my ideal profit area if I suspect a pump does not hit, I then re-evaluate the pricing again.

Nonetheless, attached at the end will be a quick Monthly Chart glance again to see what we can spot out Cheers and hopefully we can continue our respectful dialogue and collaborate further together in 2025!

Apologies for the messy daily chart, I made the writing too large and the chart too small oops!
Nonetheless as circled, 18th December was a Wednesday large green day which coincides with the Short Data spiking. Someone's been adding a chunky size and I do not want to get in their way, in fact I want to be on their side. Considering a decent trendline has already been broken in early December, the current trendline off the lows is in the dangerzone of a breach once again

And just a look at a much larger timeframe 3 month chart below shows us that this has been the longest run up in the entirety of ZIP's history. TO not suspect a pullback whether small, or deep is just unrealistic. For all we know, we may be at a lower high with $3.50's rejecting after Insider cashes out a $100M profit. For chartists, this would make sense otherwise it's just a bunch of randomness to put it in kind words lol. My thoughts are all outlined and attached. Price Leads Fundamentals something is coming, if its good news, already factored in. If its bad news, price dumps. It's hard to win now when a trend changes it's best to stand out of the way IMO. TOO heavily stacked to the long side, an ant (as small and lightweight as me) that decides to walk on ZIP could stack the deck of cards now

Happy 2025 all last hour to lock profits What a ride it has been! Let's revisit this in 3 months for new analysis

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Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm: ↑

ZIP Much more likelihood in the next 3 months prices sell back down IMO definitely will be watched by many eyes, no doubt. Right or wrong, there's going to be volatility for everyone to still make some money

Just some Daily Levels to watch based solely around Fibonacci Levels. I used the highs, and 2 different levels to gauge what levels would be worth watching, and all are at the 0.382 and 0.618 respectively.

Because surely, even if being an investor or going long, dollar cost averaging doesn't mean buy at whatever price one feels it's "cheap or undervalued". It's best to use technical analysis as price points to see where buyers step in, dollar cost average even within the downtrend etc etc Happy hunting to all and Happy New Year 2025 is here! Its going to be one heck of a market

Expand

ZIP chart updates so far have been quite interesting, certainly lots of volatility both long and short, buying and holding seems to be the less profitable strategy for example ZIP sells down 6%, then bounces 5% intraday....One can make upto 11% playing intraday ranges. I learn this from my own personal position as I have seen PnL swings every day.

Nonetheless we can see that something juicy is setting up. Ever since Larry sold, as per my thesis all it has done is increase seller pressure. As much as there are intraday shorts creating pop ups, I suspect Friday is one of those days where shortsellers pop it up for a morning spike. Albeit, short lived, trapping longs and giving shorts better risk reward.

With all that said, it just seems like the threat of a breakdown is getting closer and closer. Considering past action at the double top when Larry Sold out, we can see prices went for a big multi day sell down.

We are due for another one, at the breach of that $2.87 support levels. It will not hold IMO. As per previous charting, once $2.87 gets taken out best off picking any number much lower as they all have increasing probability of being seen. $2.68? Seen. $2.50 and lower? Seen. $2.50? $2.25? All will be seen IMO based on trend change if all the thesis remains intact then the probability of these lower targets are 99.99999999%

Smart shorts have loaded into EVERY uptick within this trend change. Only longs are legit short termers such as daytraders, overnight holders, scalpers, algos and bots. The room for genuine longs is dissipating, firstly because the stock ISN'T discounted enough ALL IMO follow trend, chart, moneyflow (which is exiting out) etc etc GLTAHz!

ZIP Price at posting: $3.04 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $2.91		Change 0.140(5.05%)		Mkt cap ! $3.772B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.86	$2.97	$2.85	$37.33M	12.83M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
41	169753	$2.90

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.91	51265	12

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
24	109741	2.900
29	207944	2.890
22	234624	2.880
21	316332	2.870
20	418051	2.860

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.910	376698	37
2.920	249949	29
2.930	231802	41
2.940	180562	21
2.950	283549	23

Last trade - 14.26pm 24/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

ZIP (ASX) Chart