Key Factors for ESR's Success: My investment reference statement

This post will serve as my investment reference statement for the next six months:

I'll be referring back to it frequently over the next nine months!

As the wet season progresses in Timor-Leste, it’s vital to focus on critical aspects that will shape ESR’s performance. This period is an opportunity for management to finalize preparations for what could be a transformative drilling campaign in the second quarter of 2025. Here’s what I’m focusing on:

1. Funding is the Foundation

Funding is paramount. The $5 million Ratta option is promising, but Daws has wisely been presenting this project across Asia to institutions, ensuring alternative avenues are explored.

Funding sourced at a 3 to 4cent valuation would reduce dilution and reflect stronger investor confidence.

- Strategic partnerships or institutional backing will be key to securing favorable terms.

- I’ll be watching closely for clarity on funding sources, as this will directly impact the pace and scale of operations.

2. The Drilling Program is Make-or-Break
(Based on My Estimates)

The next drilling program is pivotal but comes with challenges. While my estimates are derived from previous campaigns, the tough terrain, unpredictable weather, potential equipment breakdowns, and the inexperience of Timor-Leste crews could slow operations significantly.

- Scope: I estimate an initial program of 85 holes at Samalari ($7000 per hole), targeting the 85,000 sqm strike zone. Costs could reach approximately $600,000 AUD for Samalari alone.

- Drill Rates: RC drills typically achieve 10 meters/hour, potentially allowing 180 holes over three months under ideal conditions. However, delays in tough terrain are likely.

- Depth Potential: Some holes may extend to 100 meters plus if mineralization is encountered, increasing costs and complexity.

It’s crucial to manage expectations and understand that this program must be executed with precision to validate the project’s potential.

Note: please don't crucify me for my estimations before the program is released, they are just that, estimations

3. Confidence in Permitting

Daws’ local connections in Timor-Leste provide a distinct advantage. I remain confident that permits submitted through his network will move faster than comparable processes in Australia, reducing potential bureaucratic delays.

Seamless permitting is essential for operations to commence as planned by late March.

4. Logistics and Infrastructure Are Key

I’m encouraged by the sourcing of drills, the buildup of experienced crews, and the infrastructure being established to support this program. However, challenges such as remote operations, equipment maintenance, and limited access to spare parts could cause delays.

- Success here will reflect management’s foresight and ability to adapt to unforeseen hurdles.

5. Wet Season Realities and Preparation

The wet season presents operational limitations but also a crucial window for planning. Conditions in Timor-Leste include:

- January: 222mm rainfall, 25.4°C, 80% humidity

- February: 252mm rainfall, 25.3°C, 81% humidity

- March: 240mm rainfall, 25.2°C, 82% humidity

Drilling in this environment would be challenging, making it an ideal time to focus on preparation rather than execution.

The Bigger Picture

This wet season should be used strategically. While on-the-ground operations slow down, I expect management to maximize this time with:

- Frequent news flow regarding funding, equipment sourcing, and drill program development.

- A fully fleshed-out drilling plan that is ready to go by March.

As soon as the drill program is released, I’ll seek expert opinions to analyze and scrutinize its viability.

My position will be fully committed, or fully divested—before the first drill breaks ground in Timor.

Over to you, Team!

Chris Daws, Steve Warriner, and Les Pereira, this is your time to shine. The groundwork laid now will set the stage for what will be in my opinion a transformative second quarter of 2025.

Let’s make this count Chris.

Also
Chris / Les, id also ask for you to update once again the top 20 Share holders list in the online portal