General Thoughts, page-6997

This is a good summary from Jamie Vinnels, published on linkedin.
And the comments there are even better.

listing the risks:
- too much gas ( maturity of source rock, oil-gas migration path)
- too low permeability (k). Shaly sdst, illite/chlorite content
- too small sand bodies ( lateral and thickness(h))

The Shell block is not hopeless. After all Shell drilled 9 wells. But it is clear now that the Shell block is not "sweet" enough for the commercial key performance indicators for a major oil company as Shell with this geology and drilling results and the current oil/gas price and Namibian laws.

First Total was excited when Total discovered the gas/ condensate field in South Africa. But gave it up and walked away. New exploration wells and New luck for Total in Namibia now. I hope the Total excitement after the Venus discovery gets futher support from well testing at Mangeti at present. Venus and Mangeti should have higher volumes than the discovered reservoirs in the Shell block. Hopefully soon we hear about the final investment decision and the "go ahead" from Total in their block.

Of course Galp published mainly positive news from Mopane because they want to sell 40% of Mopane. Mopane is large, the 14.000 bbl/d test rate is very, very promising. As I understand, Galp got separated more and less gassy reservoirs. After 4 successful wells we wait for the results of Galp's 5th well.

Chevron put some earmarked money on the table. Very curious to hear from their first well in their neighbouring offshore block soon.

The exploration wells are moving to the north and come closer to Saturn. IMHO and theoretically we have good chances with Saturn because Saturn is the largest stratigrafic prospect. If it is a hit, it could be a massive jackpot hit for all of us. But we will know only after the first well. Cmon Woodside/PCL and become more proactive instead of waiting till to the day before the dead line.