mak is moving , page-26

Thank you for pointing it out Boris. My short term memory is failing me as I get older! MAK traded above $2.50 back in 2008 and not $4.00, since then MAK has really fatten up with the number of shares issued, but, still retaining a MC of $100m.

We are all witnessing grain prices moving up, and with it so will farm incomes that will enable farmers to spend more on seeds, equipment and fertilisers etc, thus I am expecting a new upward trend in phosphate / potash prices in the long term. I believe investors are taking positions in MAK on this expectation. Where increase phosphate prices back by strong demand and supply fundamentals will increase the likelihood that the Asian Strategic Investors will provide the funding, and we will see the long awaited large scale development of Wonorah.

Speaking about Asian Investors, it does not surprise me that the capital injection could be from Asia. Whether is it India or China? We have already seen signs where China considered a rival bid to BHP's $36b for Canada's Potash Corp, and the 60% stake in Israeli generic chemical maker Makheshim-Agan. China is on the prowl for fertilisers, the world's largest consumer of food feeding 1.3b people.

From my research, I am witnessing an urbanisation population shift from country areas to cities, where arable farming land is becoming less abundant in proportion to the growing population. Therefore, there is a need to increase the productivity of land to produce more crops and feeds for life stock. This is where fertilisers and chemicals comes in.

However, it appears that China's productivity of farming land itself is not enough. Take a look at imports, the billions spent on food? Take a look at the trends in rice exports / imports, the Chinese staple food. Only a couple of years ago China use to be a net exporter of rice, but now, China is a net importer. What does this tell you about food supply and demand? Demand is increasing in the most populous country in the world where supply cannot keep up. India could easily follow.

I will be treating MAK as more of like a strategic long term investment this time round. If Analyst is right and we do indeed see an increase demand for food on dwindling supply caused by increase natural disasters (global warming factors), increase global population, changes in environment policies (i.e. Carbon tax, farmers cannot simply burn off land to fertilise as a cheap alternative but rather need to buy fertiliser etc) and perhaps the backlog in farm expansions as the result of the GFC where grain prices were practically matching cost of production.

This is really exciting. I hope in time we will see this super trend awake in the Agriculture arena. There is really a big story behind MAK with so much going on it can give you a headache:

1) $100m MC with one of the world's largest phosphate resource in the World
3) Wononah NPV $748m base on recent presentation at $150/t FOB and AU$ = US$0.85 (note that present phosphate prices is now around $140/t at AU$=US$1.00, peak price was back in 2007/08 around $425/t)
2) 40-45% ownership in BCD's 521m oz gold resource (300m reserves), in addition to copper exploration assets
3) Nambia project NPV $312M at sale price of only $80/t

and others.... funding will be the crucial space to watch for MAK this year.

LM